世界银行-换挡_私营部门是中东和北非增长的引擎（英）-2025.4_79页_1mb

MENA Private Sector Analysis Summary

Key Findings

• Economic Outlook: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region experienced modest growth at 1.9% in 2024, with an improvement projected for 2025 and 2026. However, this growth remains shadowed by significant uncertainty due to global and regional instability, including trade policy shifts and the persistent impact of conflicts.

• Private Sector Underperformance: The private sector in MENA lacks dynamism, with low productivity growth, limited investment, and insufficient innovation. On average, sales per worker fell by 8% in post-pandemic data, representing a significant underperformance compared to income peers.

• Informality and Gender Inclusion: The MENA region exhibits high informality, with informal employment accounting for 40–80% of total jobs. Women are largely excluded from the private sector, with only 5.7% of firms having female top managers, and the female labor force participation rate is among the lowest globally at 18%.

• Vulnerability to Shocks: The private sector in MENA shows limited ability to withstand both conflict and extreme weather shocks. Droughts were associated with a 40% reduction in sales for affected firms, severely impacting economic activity, while conflicts disproportionately affect countries with weak governance.

• Government Intervention: Extensive government intervention through state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and restrictive regulations reduces market contestability. SOEs have a large economic footprint, hindering private sector development, while the regulatory environment, including business licensing, is perceived as a severe obstacle (97% of firms in Yemen).

• Private Sector Resilience: Despite challenges, there is evidence of adaptation by firms in conflict-affected contexts. Post-conflict economic recovery shows signs of private sector resilience and limited capability to harness inputs from intermediation.

• Capacity Building for Growth: Private sector firms in MENA can enhance productivity by improving management practices (Bloom et al. 2016), which account for one-third of total factor productivity differences between MENA and other economies. Recruitment of female managers could also increase women's employment by about 50%, yielding a double dividend.

• Data Challenges: Inadequate and inaccessible administrative firm-level and census data in MENA constrain evidence-based policymaking and sound assessment of private sector performance. The region faces a significant discrepancy in data transparency, measured at a loss of 5.9–7.5% of GDP per capita between 2005 and 2018.

Recommendations

• Governments should bolster data accessibility and quality to enable evidence-based policy decisions and improve private sector assessment. This includes compiling administrative data on both formal and informal firms.

• Policy interventions should aim to enhance market contestability by reconsidering the role of SOEs and ensuring competitive neutrality. Separating governments' roles as regulators, owners, and policymakers could improve market dynamics.

• Efforts to fortify the business environment through reducing regulatory burden, combating corruption, and augmenting operational efficiency would support private sector growth.

• Implementing cautious and well-evaluated industrial policy is crucial, given MENA’s high distortion levels and governance deficits. Industrial policy interventions should focus on addressing high-priority market failures through credible implementation and continuous assessment.

• Promoting improvements in management practices and increasing the participation of women in the workforce and entrepreneurial roles would enhance firm dynamism and productivity. Policymakers should also address structural barriers to female employment through legal reforms and enforcement.

By addressing these challenges, the MENA private sector can unlock its potential to serve as a key engine of growth, mitigating the terrors of conflict and extreme weather events while contributing to lifting living standards across the region.