2016年-世界发展银行全球_Improving_Weather_Climate_and_Hydrological_Services_Delivery_in_Central_Asia_52页_842kb

Summary of "Improving Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services Delivery in Central Asia"

Core Content

This report is part of a technical assistance project aimed at improving weather, climate, and hydrological services in Central Asia, specifically in the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. It is funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and implemented by the World Bank. The study is conducted in collaboration with the National Hydrometeorological Services (NMSs) of the three countries and contributes to the broader Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster Risk Management Initiative (CAC DRMI) under the World Bank and UN/ISDR. The goal is to enhance the capacity and efficiency of these services to better support economic development and disaster risk reduction in the region.

Main Views

• Weather and Climate Risks: Central Asia is highly vulnerable to a range of hydrometeorological hazards, including floods, mudslides, droughts, frosts, avalanches, hail, and strong winds. These events have significant economic and social impacts, with average annual losses ranging from 0.4 to 1.3 percent of GDP.

• User Needs: The demand for high-quality weather, climate, and hydrological information is growing, especially for early warning systems and disaster risk management. These services are crucial for sectors such as agriculture, transport, water resources, and hydropower.

• Current NMS Challenges: The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the three countries face severe limitations in infrastructure, equipment, and staffing. Many facilities are outdated, and there is a lack of modern forecasting tools and communication systems. This hampers their ability to deliver timely and accurate information.

• Economic Benefits: There is a clear potential for economic gains through improved hydrometeorological services. Even modest investments can lead to measurable improvements in service delivery and risk mitigation.

• Modernization Programs: The proposed modernization programs include three main components:

  1. Technical Design: Involves the development of monitoring and telecommunication systems, and the creation of technical specifications and tender documents.
  2. System Improvements: Focuses on enhancing observational networks, adopting modern forecasting methods, and strengthening information technology infrastructure.
  3. Institutional Strengthening: Emphasizes staff training, professional development, and capacity building to ensure sustainable service delivery.

Key Information

Country-Specific Characteristics

• Kyrgyz Republic:

  • High elevation with over 70% of the country above 2,000 meters.
  • Subtropical and semi-arid climate in the south.
  • Drought-prone, but with high precipitation in mountainous areas.

• Republic of Tajikistan:

  • Over 50% of the country lies above 3,000 meters.
  • Subtropical and semi-arid climate with some desert areas.
  • High frequency of snowmelt-induced floods and mudslides.
  • Particularly affected by dust storms and strong winds.

• Turkmenistan:

  • Extremely arid, with 80% of the country being flat desert.
  • High frequency of dry hot winds and dust cyclones.
  • Minimal impact from snowmelt-related hazards.

Economic Impact of Hazards

• Floods and Mudslides: These are the most damaging events, with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan experiencing the highest frequency and economic losses.
• Drought: A significant concern, especially in Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, with increasing frequency.
• Other Hazards: Frost, hail, and strong winds also contribute to economic and social losses, though to a lesser extent than floods and droughts.

Observational Network Status

• Meteorological Stations:
  • Kyrgyzstan: 32 stations (62% reduction since 1985).
  • Tajikistan: 57 stations (22% reduction since 1985).
  • Turkmenistan: 48 stations (52% reduction since 1985).
• Hydrological Stations:
  • Kyrgyzstan: 76 stations (48% reduction since 1985).
  • Tajikistan: 81 stations (41% reduction since 1985).
  • Turkmenistan: 32 stations (45% reduction since 1985).
• Upper Air Stations:
  • Kyrgyzstan: 3 operational stations.
  • Tajikistan: 4 operational stations.
  • Turkmenistan: 6 operational stations.
• Meteorological Radars:
  • Kyrgyzstan: 1 radar in pilot operation.
  • Turkmenistan: 1 radar in operation.
• Agromet Observation Stations:
  • Kyrgyzstan: 31 stations (55% reduction since 1985).
  • Tajikistan: 37 stations (46% reduction since 1985).
  • Turkmenistan: 48 stations (15% reduction since 1985).

Challenges in NMS Operations

• Outdated Infrastructure: All observational and communication systems are in poor condition, with many stations lacking modern equipment.
• Insufficient Staffing and Training: There is a shortage of qualified personnel, and training programs are inadequate.
• Inefficient Data Collection and Dissemination: The system for collecting, archiving, and providing data is not reliable or efficient.
• Lack of Modern Technology: The available IT systems are outdated and unable to handle large data volumes required for accurate forecasting.

Proposed Solutions

• Modernization of Observational Networks: Includes the renewal of stations, deployment of modern equipment, and enhancement of data collection and transmission.
• Capacity Building: Focuses on improving staff skills, training programs, and institutional support.
• Regional Cooperation: Encourages collaboration among the three countries to improve forecasts and outcomes across the region.

Regional Context

• The report is part of the CAREC program and contributes to the CAC DRMI, which aims to reduce disaster risk and improve climate resilience.
• The modernization of NMSs is also aligned with the Central Asia Regional Energy-Water Development Framework.

Next Steps

• Develop specific and verifiable performance indicators for each national program.
• Involve users in the modernization process to ensure the services meet their needs.
• Implement the proposed technical upgrades and capacity-building initiatives.

This report highlights the critical role of improved weather, climate, and hydrological services in supporting sustainable development and reducing disaster risk in Central Asia. It underscores the need for modernization, investment, and collaboration to enhance the resilience of the region's economies and populations.