2015年-世界发展银行全球_Modernizing_Weather_Water_and_Climate_Services___A_Road_Map_for_Bhutan_102页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of Modernizing Weather, Water, and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan

Core Content

This report, prepared in collaboration between the Royal Government of Bhutan and the World Bank, outlines a strategic roadmap for modernizing Bhutan's hydrometeorological and climate services. It focuses on improving the monitoring and forecasting capacities of the Department of Hydromet Services (DHMS), enhancing early warning systems (EWSs), and strengthening institutional and technical capabilities to better address climate-related risks and support key economic sectors.

Main Objectives

Modernize the DHMS to improve the delivery of weather, water, and climate services.
Strengthen disaster-related early warning systems.
Enhance the capacity of the DHMS to provide reliable and timely services in response to user needs.
Support climate resilience and adaptation across key sectors such as agriculture, hydropower, and infrastructure.

Key Findings

Bhutan is a mountainous country highly exposed to hydrometeorological hazards, including GLOFs, flash floods, landslides, and tropical cyclones.
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Most of Bhutan’s population and infrastructure are located in high-risk areas, especially during the monsoon season.
The DHMS currently lacks a national policy for hydrometeorological services and has limited capacity and budget for monitoring and forecasting.
Data collection is mostly manual, and access to WIS and high-speed internet is limited.
Forecast verification systems are not in place, and flood forecasting remains underdeveloped.
User demand for hydrometeorological services is high, spanning various sectors such as agriculture, aviation, and disaster management.

Institutional and Organizational Analysis

The DHMS was established in 2011 and is transitioning from a data collection agency to a service provider.
The DHMS has limited staff capacity and budget for capital investments and operation and maintenance (O&M).
Institutional collaboration is needed across various government departments, including the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), Department of Geology and Mines (DGM), and Ministry of Works and Human Settlement.
Regional and global cooperation is essential due to the transboundary nature of climate and weather patterns.

Key Recommendations and Road Map

Short-term Actions (1–2 years)

Prepare a strategic plan based on user needs and stakeholder consultations.
Strengthen IT infrastructure by acquiring and installing the WMO Information System (WIS) and ensuring high-speed internet access.
Prioritize high-priority monitoring systems such as airport instrumentation for aviation safety.
Improve basic weather and hydrological forecasting through hardware and software upgrades, training, and modeling tools.
Pilot end-to-end EWSs in selected hotspot areas with collaboration from DDM and other agencies.
Develop a training plan for key areas like weather forecasting, data management, snow and glacier monitoring, and service delivery.

Medium-term Actions (3–5 years)

Expand monitoring networks and telemetry systems.
Develop sector-specific services for agriculture, hydropower, and infrastructure.
Establish training programs and capacity building initiatives for DHMS staff.
Implement forecast verification systems and improve data quality and management.
Develop climate services to support adaptation and resilience planning.

Long-term Actions (5 years and beyond)

Develop a long-term cryosphere monitoring program to assess glacier and snow changes and their impacts.
Strengthen the DHMS's capacity to analyze and predict climate-related changes.
Expand regional collaboration with India, JICA, and other partners.
Integrate climate services into national policy and institutional frameworks.
Ensure sustainable funding and capacity development to support continuous service improvement.

Key Information

Hydrometeorological hazards in Bhutan include GLOFs, flash floods, landslides, cloudbursts, and river erosion.
User sectors such as agriculture, aviation, disaster management, and hydropower rely heavily on accurate and timely hydromet services.
The DHMS budget is limited, with annual operational costs around USD 550,000 since 2011, insufficient for significant expansion.
Remote sensing and glacier monitoring are critical for assessing long-term climate impacts and mitigating GLOF risks.
Collaboration with regional partners and international agencies is recommended to enhance forecasting, training, and early warning systems.

Conclusion

This report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and integrated approach to modernizing Bhutan's hydrometeorological and climate services. It outlines a clear roadmap for strengthening monitoring, forecasting, early warning systems, and institutional capacities in the short, medium, and long term. The DHMS must modernize its infrastructure, enhance IT systems, and build capacity in key areas to effectively support climate resilience, disaster preparedness, and economic development in Bhutan.