Q4 2021 Digital Commerce Sector Summary
Core Content Overview
Q4 2021 marked a significant period for the digital commerce sector, characterized by trends in custom packaging, real estate iBuying, SPAC listings, and the performance of major players like Amazon. The sector experienced both growth and volatility, with many companies seeking public market liquidity through SPACs while facing challenges related to profitability and sustainability.
Main Trends and Insights
Custom Packaging for Superior Unboxing Experiences
- The rise of e-commerce and on-demand delivery has led to an increased demand for custom packaging among emerging brands.
- Brands aim to differentiate themselves through eye-catching packaging that enhances the unboxing experience, which is often shared on social media.
- On-demand custom packaging solutions are becoming more prevalent, allowing small order volumes without significant inventory.
- Companies like Packhelp (€40m Series B), noissue ($10m Series A), and Packlane ($4m Series A) are leading the charge in this space.
- Other providers such as Gelato ($240m raise), Printful ($130m raise), and Printify ($45m Series A) are also offering custom printing services.
- The packaging industry is under pressure to meet sustainability expectations from consumers.
Real Estate iBuying Market Volatility
- Zillow's withdrawal from the iBuying market in Q4 raised concerns about the capital-intensive model.
- Opendoor remains a leader with a larger inventory than Offerpad, and balancing top-line growth with profitability is key.
- RedfinNow uses a combination of software and human oversight to avoid overpaying during market cooling.
- European iBuyers such as Kodit ($132m raised), Casavo (€300m raised), and Tiko ($116m raised) have attracted significant funding.
- The iBuying market has a large TAM and growth potential, but current valuations indicate investor caution.
SPAC Activity in Q4
- Q4 saw a flurry of SPAC listings as companies sought public market liquidity.
- Over 400 SPACs are actively looking for targets, indicating a continued trend in 2022.
- Notable SPAC deals include:
- Vivid Seats ($769M) and Grab ($4,500M)
- SSU ($484M) and Boxed ($640M)
- Enjoy Technology ($250M) and goPuff ($1,500M)
- SPACs are a popular route for growth, but many newly listed stocks saw negative share performance due to market corrections.
IPO Activity and Market Performance
- Several companies listed in Q4 saw mixed share performance:
- Rent the Runway (-58%), Udemy (-29%), EINC (-21%), BUBBLEROOM (-15%), VIVIDSEATS (-11%), SIGNA SPORTS UNITED (-16%), Kitt (-58%), and Refurbed (not listed).
- The market cap of Amazon and Alibaba remains dominant in the sector, while other players are still in the process of scaling.
Key Transactions and Deal Sizes
| Deal |
Date |
Size |
Target |
Buyer |
| Packhelp |
DEC-21 |
€40M |
Packhelp |
N/A |
| noissue |
NOV-21 |
$10M |
noissue |
N/A |
| Printify |
SEP-21 |
$45M |
Printify |
N/A |
| Vivid Seats |
OCT-21 |
$769M |
Vivid Seats |
Horizon |
| Grab |
DEC-21 |
$4,500M |
Grab |
SoftBank |
| SSU |
DEC-21 |
$484M |
SSU |
Yucaipa Acquisition Corp |
| Enjoy Technology |
OCT-21 |
$250M |
Enjoy Technology |
Marquee Raine Acquisition |
| Boxed |
DEC-21 |
$640M |
Boxed |
Seven-Oaks |
Public Comparables and Valuation Benchmarks
Large Cap Companies
| Company |
HQ |
Market Cap |
EV |
EV/Revenue |
| Amazon |
US |
$1,691,003M |
$1,748,253M |
4.6x (CY2020), 3.7x (CY2021), 3.2x (CY2022) |
| Alibaba |
China |
$322,029M |
$300,158M |
3.0x (CY2020), 2.3x (CY2021), 1.9x (CY2022) |
| Pinduoduo |
China |
$73,067M |
$59,806M |
7.4x (CY2020), 3.9x (CY2021), 2.9x (CY2022) |
| Prosus |
Netherlands |
$214,251M |
$211,458M |
n.m. (CY2020), n.m. (CY2021), 22.9x (CY2022) |
| JD.com |
China |
$108,838M |
$90,387M |
0.8x (CY2020), 0.6x (CY2021), 0.5x (CY2022) |
| Pinterest |
US |
$23,707M |
$21,589M |
13.2x (CY2020), 8.4x (CY2021), 6.7x (CY2022) |
| eBay |
US |
$41,629M |
$36,375M |
3.6x (CY2020), 3.5x (CY2021), 3.3x (CY2022) |
| Rakuten |
Japan |
$15,850M |
$6,951M |
0.6x (CY2020), 0.5x (CY2021), 0.4x (CY2022) |
E-commerce Sector
| Company |
HQ |
Market Cap |
EV |
EV/Revenue |
| Zalando |
Germany |
$20,309M |
$19,885M |
2.2x (CY2020), 1.7x (CY2021), 1.4x (CY2022) |
| VIP Shop |
China |
$5,691M |
$3,821M |
0.2x (CY2020), 0.2x (CY2021), 0.2x (CY2022) |
| The Huf Group |
UK |
$3,789M |
$3,729M |
1.7x (CY2020), 1.3x (CY2021), 1.0x (CY2022) |
| ASOS |
UK |
$3,228M |
$3,403M |
0.8x (CY2020), 0.6x (CY2021), 0.6x (CY2022) |
| Stitch Fix |
US |
$3,228M |
$3,403M |
0.8x (CY2020), 0.6x (CY2021), 0.6x (CY2022) |
Key Players and Their Perspectives
Steve Coulson, Co-Founder & CEO of Kitt
- Kitt provides a flexible office space solution.
- The company has $8m Series A funding for international expansion.
- Kitt operates on an asset-light model, connecting landlords with tenants directly.
- Focuses on customer experience rather than balance sheet metrics.
- Offers personalised experiences and flexible terms (average of 2-3 years).
Peter Windischhofer, Co-Founder & CEO of Refurbed
- Refurbed is a sustainable product marketplace in Europe.
- Offers transparency and quality control for all sellers.
- Has a high Net Promoter Score (65) and is voted most sustainable in Austria.
- Aims to reduce environmental impact by offering sustainable products.
- Combining categories makes it a unique offering hard to replicate.
Market Valuation Benchmarks
EV/NTM Revenue Trends
| Sector |
L5Y |
L3Y |
LTM |
L6M |
| Large Cap |
6.0x |
7.4x |
8.3x |
7.2x |
| E-commerce |
1.9x |
2.3x |
3.5x |
2.8x |
| Marketplaces |
5.5x |
5.8x |
6.4x |
5.8x |
| Classifieds |
7.5x |
7.9x |
8.9x |
8.9x |
| Online Travel |
3.6x |
3.7x |
5.6x |
5.2x |
Key Financial Metrics
| Company |
2019-2021 CAGR |
Gross Margin |
EBITDA Margin |
| Large Cap |
29% |
40% |
15% |
| E-commerce |
26% |
43% |
8% |
| Marketplaces |
31% |
45% |
9% |
| Classifieds |
28% |
63% |
3% |
| Online Travel |
50% |
60% |
19% |
Conclusion
The Q4 2021 digital commerce landscape is marked by innovation, SPAC activity, and market volatility. While custom packaging and sustainability are becoming key differentiators, the real estate iBuying market is still in flux due to capital intensity and profitability concerns. Amazon continues to dominate, but the sector's growth is being driven by a mix of emerging brands and SPAC listings. Investor caution is evident, as market corrections have impacted many newly listed companies. The sector's future will depend on scaling, profitability, and sustainable practices.