20150911-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_17页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of regional market updates and investment recommendations for the period ending Friday, 11 September 2015. It includes updates on China, Indonesia, and Malaysia, focusing on NG price cuts, healthcare sector developments, and infrastructure stimulus. The summary also includes key indices, top picks, key assumptions, and company-specific updates.

Main Points by Region

China

NG Price Cut: A Rmb0.5/cum price cut is expected in the near term, likely to be announced in Sep-Oct 2015. This is based on the NDRC's policy of adjusting NG prices annually, semi-annually, and eventually quarterly.
Impact: The price cut is expected to improve NG's competitiveness against gasoline and diesel, and increase NG sales volume growth. It is anticipated to lead to 8-15% organic growth in NG sales from October 2015.
Market Sentiment: The price cut is seen as a near-term catalyst for improving market sentiment and boosting NG consumption.
Sector Valuation: The sector is currently trading at 11.2x FY16F PE, which is below the historical average of 16x.
Top Picks:
- CR Gas (1193 HK): BUY, with a target price of HK$31.00.
- ENN Energy (2688 HK): BUY, with a target price of HK$65.00.
- Kunlun Energy (135 HK): BUY, with a target price of HK$7.80.
- BEHL (392 HK): BUY, with a target price of HK$60.00.

Indonesia

Stimulus Package Phase 1: The Indonesian government announced a stimulus package aimed at boosting infrastructure development, particularly in seaports and airports.
Key Beneficiaries: Companies such as AKRA, KIJA, BEST, TOTO, and ARNA are expected to benefit from the stimulus. Progress has been made in airport developments.
Construction Sector: Construction companies like WSKT and PTPP are also likely to benefit from the stimulus.

Malaysia

Plantation Sector: Production reached a record high in August 2015, but FFB yield was lower, especially in East Malaysia. Production is likely to peak in 2015.
Company Upgrade: Sime Darby was upgraded to BUY from HOLD.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	16330.4	0.5	(0.1)	(7.3)	(8.4)
S&P 500	1952.3	0.5	0.2	(7.2)	(5.2)
FTSE 100	6155.8	(1.2)	(0.6)	(8.6)	(6.2)
AS30	5117.0	(2.3)	1.4	(6.5)	(5.0)
CSI 300	3357.6	(1.2)	(0.1)	(17.4)	(5.0)
FSSTI	2888.0	(1.4)	(0.6)	(8.4)	(14.2)
HSCEI	9780.2	(2.0)	5.1	(13.2)	(18.4)
HSI	21562.5	(2.6)	3.0	(12.0)	(8.7)
JCI	4343.3	(0.1)	(2.0)	(6.0)	(16.9)
KLCI	1614.0	0.7	0.7	(1.4)	(8.4)
KOSPI	1962.1	1.4	2.4	(1.2)	2.4
Nikkei 225	18299.6	(2.5)	0.6	(11.7)	4.9
SET	1396.2	(0.0)	0.9	(0.9)	(6.8)
TWSE	8268.7	(0.2)	2.1	(1.5)	(11.2)
BDI	830	(2.9)	(6.8)	(30.7)	6.1
CPO (RM/mt)	1978	1.8	4.4	(0.9)	(13.9)
Brent Crude	49	2.8	(3.5)	(3.0)	(14.7)

Key Assumptions

Region	GDP (% yoy) 2013	GDP (% yoy) 2014	GDP (% yoy) 2015F
US	2.2	2.4	2.9
Euro Zone	-0.5	0.9	1.3
Japan	1.6	-0.1	1.0
Singapore	4.4	2.9	2.9
Malaysia	4.7	6.0	5.0
Thailand	2.8	0.9	2.7
Indonesia	5.6	5.0	5.0
Hong Kong	2.9	3.5	3.7
China	7.7	7.2	7.0

Corporate Events

Evergrande Real Estate Roadshow: Singapore, 11 Sep
KWG Property Roadshow: Shanghai, 15 Sep
Deleum Bhd Luncheon: Kuala Lumpur, 17 Sep
Genting Singapore Luncheon: Singapore, 18 Sep
Far East Consortium Roadshow: Toronto and Montreal, 8 & 9 Oct
Asian Gems Conference: Singapore, 12-13 Oct

Company Update: Phoenix Healthcare (1515 HK)

Key Highlights

Organic Growth: Expected to deliver steady organic growth in the coming years due to strong hospital management capabilities.
IOT Projects: Management expects Baoding IOT projects to be inked in 2H15, which will help double the number of beds by 2016.
Performance:
- General hospital service revenue increased by 4.6% yoy to Rmb258.6m.
- 14 IOT hospitals saw revenue increase by 13% yoy to Rmb988.9m.
- Total patient visits increased by 10.5% yoy to 1.87m.
- Average spending per visit increased by 5.68% yoy to Rmb16,834.
Valuation:
- Target price: HK$21.80.
- Current share price: HK$11.98.
- Upside: +82.0%.
Key Catalysts:
- Progress in clinging new projects.
- Potential increase in medical service fees.
- Pipeline hospital projects to fuel growth.
Risks:
- Policy uncertainties.
- Delays in pipeline projects and market expansion.
- Intensifying competition.

Financial Highlights

Metric	2014 (Rmbm)	2015F (Rmbm)	2016F (Rmbm)	2017F (Rmbm)
Net turnover	1,206.3	1,405.2	1,599.8	2,199.5
EBITDA	268.3	321.9	398.6	610.3
Net profit (rep.)	230.1	268.5	315.7	468.2
Net profit (adj.)	230.1	268.5	315.7	468.2
EPS (Fen)	19.0	26.3	32.8	38.6
PE (x)	15.6	13.1	10.7	7.8
P/B (x)	2.5	2.6	2.3	1.0
ROE 2015F (%)	15.6	16.4	21.3	21.3