UNICEF-中东和北非2030一代（英文）-2019.8-110页_39mb

Summary of "MENA Generation 2030" Report

Core Content

This report, MENA Generation 2030, focuses on the demographic and developmental potential of children, adolescents, and youth (0-24 years) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It emphasizes the importance of investing in this group to unlock the demographic dividend, which refers to a period of economic growth driven by a shift in the age structure of the population, where the working-age population becomes proportionally larger and the dependent population (children and elderly) smaller.

Main Points

The Opportunity

• The MENA region is projected to experience a demographic dividend between 2018 and 2040, characterized by a low dependency ratio.
• During this period, the working-age population is expected to grow relative to the dependent population, creating an opportunity for shared wealth and expanded opportunities.
• However, this window of opportunity will close in the second half of the century due to rising life expectancy and low fertility rates.

The Problem

• The region faces significant challenges in achieving the conditions necessary for a demographic dividend.
• These include political and social instability, inequitable economic and social policies, and limited employment opportunities.
• Youth unemployment is the highest in the world, and civic engagement is among the lowest globally.
• Young women, refugees, and people with disabilities are particularly vulnerable and often socially and economically excluded.

The Solution

• Adolescents and youth have the potential to become agents of change and drivers of prosperity and stability.
• To realize this potential, urgent and targeted policy actions are required, especially in health, education, employment, and civic engagement.
• The report outlines priority policy actions to ensure a smooth transition from education to employment and to promote inclusive and sustainable development.

Key Information

Population Trends

• The MENA region is expected to double its population by 2050, from 338 million in 2000 to 724 million.
• The growth rate is projected to slow from 1.7% to 1.3% by 2030, and further to 0.8% by mid-century.
• Lebanon is the only country expected to experience a population decline by 2030.

Youth Demographics

• Children and youth (0-24 years) account for nearly half of the region's population.
• Adolescents and youth (10-24 years) make up about 26% of the total population.
• The youth population is expected to grow significantly in many countries, with Iraq, Sudan, and Palestine projected to see doubling by 2050.

Demographic Dividend

• A demographic dividend occurs when the working-age population grows as a proportion of the total population, reducing the dependency ratio.
• This window of opportunity is crucial for economic growth and fiscal space to support development.
• To fully benefit from this dividend, the region must ensure political stability, inclusive policies, and expanded employment.

Barriers to the Dividend

• Conflict and violence are major obstacles, increasing mortality, displacement, and social fragmentation.
• Inequitable policies marginalize young women, the poor, refugees, and people with disabilities.
• Poor education quality and lack of job opportunities prevent adolescents and youth from transitioning into the workforce effectively.

Policy Recommendations

• Invest in basic services (education, health, protection) to ensure equitable access and quality outcomes.
• Facilitate the school-to-work transition for all, with a special focus on girls and women.
• Promote civic engagement and economic participation to harness the potential of the youth.
• Address gender gaps in employment and education to unlock a triple dividend.

Conclusion

The report underscores that while the demographic dividend presents a significant opportunity for the MENA region, it is contingent on policy interventions and investment in youth. The time to act is now, as the demographic window is closing, and the challenges are growing. Governments, donors, and international agencies must collaborate to ensure inclusive and sustainable development for the region’s youth, especially the most vulnerable.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1 shows the number of children, adolescents, and youth by country for 2015, 2030, and 2050.
• Figure 2 illustrates the changes in total population from 2015 to 2030 and 2050.
• Figure 3 provides total fertility rates for the region.
• Figure 4 and Figure 5 show under-five mortality rates and life expectancy projections.
• Table 1 lists the MENA countries and their populations in 2018.
• Table 2 provides population projections for 2000-2050.
• Table 3 shows the estimated number of health service providers for each scenario.

Acknowledgements

• The report is a collaborative effort between UNICEF Headquarters and the MENA Regional Office.
• It includes contributions from various UNICEF colleagues and expert input from organizations such as the World Bank, IMF, and ILO.
• The United Nations Population Division provided the demographic data and projections used in the report.

Authors and Contributors

• Core report team: Veera Mendonca, Momo Duehring, Arthur van Diesen (UNICEF MENA Regional Office); Jan Beise, Sinae Lee, Bin Lian, Anastasia Mshvidobadze, Danzhen You (UNICEF Headquarters).
• Co-author: Elizabeth Dalling.
• Design: Razan Al Sheikh.
• Expert reviewers: Niranjan Sarangi, Catriona Purfield, Rabah Arezki, Tariq A. Haq, Ghada Barsoum.

Data Sources and Reliability

• Projections are based on median variants from the UNPD 2017 revision of World Population Prospects.
• These projections consider fertility, mortality, and migration trends.
• While short-term projections are generally accurate, longer-term or smaller population projections have a larger margin of uncertainty.

Final Note

The report highlights that effective investment in children, adolescents, and youth is essential for realizing the demographic dividend and achieving sustainable development in the MENA region.