2016年-世界发展银行全球_Structural_Transformation_in_Africa___A_Historical_View_76页_4mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Structural Transformation in Africa: A Historical View"

Core Content

This working paper by Maria Enache, Ejaz Ghani, and Stephen O'Connell examines the historical patterns of structural transformation in African economies over the past four decades, focusing on the shift in labor from agriculture to manufacturing and services. It highlights the changing relationship between income levels and economic structure, emphasizing the role of sectoral productivity and the implications for growth and employment.

Main Viewpoints

Structural Transformation Trends: African countries have generally seen a decline in the share of labor in agriculture, with a shift towards the services sector, especially in recent decades.
Shift in Employment Patterns: Unlike other developing regions, African countries have not experienced a significant increase in manufacturing employment. Instead, the labor shift has been towards the services sector, which historically has been less productive than manufacturing.
Convergence in Productivity: There is evidence of unconditional convergence in the services sector, particularly in modern services like FIRE industries, suggesting that services may now be more important for growth than manufacturing.
Diverse Structural Change Patterns: African countries show varied historical patterns of structural transformation, which makes it difficult to generalize from a continent-wide perspective.
Early vs. Late Reformers: The paper identifies two broad patterns of structural change:
- Early Reformers: Countries like Botswana, Nigeria, South Africa, Mauritius, and Egypt saw an early shift of labor out of agriculture, with manufacturing absorbing labor before the 1990s. However, the pace of structural change slowed in the 1990s and 2000s.
- Late Reformers: Countries like Zambia, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Senegal, Malawi, and Ghana experienced a later shift out of agriculture, with services sectors absorbing labor in the 1990s and 2000s. These countries generally show a more consistent pace of structural change.

Key Information

Data Source: The analysis uses the GGDC (Groeningen Growth and Development Centre) 10-sector database, which provides detailed employment and value added data across multiple sectors.
Convergence Analysis: The paper finds that while manufacturing showed strong convergence in the past, the services sector, especially modern services, has shown stronger convergent pressures in recent decades.
Role of Services: The services sector, particularly traditional services like wholesale and retail trade, has become a major absorber of labor in African countries. This contrasts with historical patterns in East Asia and Europe, where manufacturing was the main driver of structural change.
Informal Manufacturing: African manufacturing is dominated by informal firms, which are less productive than formal, organized firms, contributing to the lower productivity growth in this sector.
Country-Level Scorecard: The paper introduces a scorecard approach to evaluate structural transformation using five criteria: productivity, dynamic productivity growth, input expansion, comparative advantage, and exportability. This allows for a more nuanced assessment of structural change at the country level.

Structural Transformation Scorecard

Wholesale and Retail Trade Services: High productivity and a major labor absorber, though limited in tradability and exportability.
Construction Sector: Also has high productivity and convergent pressures but has not absorbed significant labor in most African countries.
Modern Services (FIRE industries): Tradeable and exportable, but still a small share of employment in many African countries.
Comparative Advantage and Exportability: These are important factors for structural transformation, though African countries have not fully capitalized on them yet, unlike India.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that African structural transformation is not following the same path as other developing regions. Instead, it is characterized by a shift towards services, with different patterns of structural change across countries. The analysis suggests that understanding these patterns is essential for developing suitable and feasible growth models for Africa.

References

Acemoglu, Daron, Francisco A. Gallego, and James A. Robinson. 2014. Institutions, Human Capital and Development. Annual Reviews of Economics.
African Transformation Report (ACET). 2014. 2014 African Transformation Report: Growth with Depth.
African Development Bank (ADB). 2015. AfDB Group's Long Term Strategy.
Amirapu, Amrit and Arvind Subramanian. 2015. Manufacturing or Services? An Indian Illustration of a Development Dilemma.
African Union (AU). 2015. Agenda 2063 Vision and Priorities.
Fine, and Susan Lund. 2012. Jobs: The next piece of Africa's growth jigsaw.
IMF. 2013. Jobs and Growth: Analytical and Operational Considerations for the Fund.
McKinsey Global Institute. 2010. Lions on the Move—The Progress and Potential of African Economies.
McMillan, Margaret S, and Kenneth Harttgen. 2014. What is driving the "African Growth Miracle"? NBER Working Paper.
McMillan, Margaret and Dani Rodrik. 2014. Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth, with an Update on Africa. World Development.