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Ghana Economic Summary: Structural Transformation, Productivity, and Employment (1991-2012)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of Ghana's economic transformation, productivity growth, and employment trends from 1991 to 2012. It highlights the shift from an agriculture-based economy to a more diversified one, with a growing emphasis on services and industry. The report also examines the drivers of GDP growth and the impact of structural changes on economic performance.

Main Economic Trends

GDP Growth and Structural Transformation

• Ghana experienced sustained economic growth over the past two decades, with average growth rates of nearly 8% between 2006 and 2012, significantly higher than other countries in the region and lower-middle-income nations.
• Growth slowed in 2009 due to the global financial crisis, but recovered in 2010, leading to middle-income status.
• By 2011, GDP growth peaked at 14%, but declined sharply to 4.2% in 2014 and is projected to further decelerate to 3.5% in 2015.
• The shift from agriculture to services was a key structural transformation, with the agriculture share of GDP decreasing by 40%, from over a third in 1991 to 23% in 2012.
• The service sector expanded to nearly half of GDP by 2012, becoming the largest contributor to economic growth.
• The industry share of GDP increased slightly to 27.3% in 2013, though employment growth in this sector was relatively slow.

Sectoral Contributions to GDP Growth

• Productivity was the main driver of GDP growth, accounting for 70.5% of the total growth from 1991 to 2012.
• Employment changes and demographic shifts contributed 19.2% and 10.3%, respectively.
• Services were the largest contributor to GDP growth, responsible for 23.9% of total growth, driven by a diverse group of activities including financial and business services, public administration, education, health, and social protection.
• Construction contributed 14% to GDP growth, due to productivity increases and intersectoral shifts.
• Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels contributed 13.8%, while transport, storage, and communication accounted for 18.5%.

Employment Trends

• Agriculture remained the main sector of employment, accounting for 43.2% of total employment in 2012, down from 60.5% in 1991.
• Services became the second-largest employment sector, increasing from 28.7% in 1991 to 42.0% in 2012.
• Industry also saw an increase in employment share, from 10.7% in 1991 to 14.9% in 2012, though at a slower pace than services.
• The rate of employment shift out of agriculture doubled after 2005, increasing from 1.6% per year to 3% per year.
• Despite the shift, industrial employment share remained relatively flat, indicating limited growth in this sector.

Productivity and Output per Worker

• Within-sector productivity was the main driver of growth, contributing 47.4% to GDP per capita growth.
• Agriculture and services saw significant increases in value added per worker, with agriculture contributing 37.2% and services contributing 52.6%.
• Industry accounted for only 10% of within-sector productivity changes.
• Intersectoral shifts also had a positive impact on aggregate productivity, as workers moved from agriculture to higher productivity sectors, particularly industry and some service activities.
• However, retail, trade, and hospitality had a negative impact on productivity due to the nature of employment shifts.

Key Findings

• Structural transformation did not significantly boost GDP growth in itself, as intersectoral shifts contributed less than a quarter of the total GDP growth.
• Productivity improvements within the service sector were the most important factor in driving economic growth.
• The decline in agriculture was more rapid after 2005, but the service sector did not see a corresponding increase in its share of GDP.
• Fiscal consolidation, energy crises, and weak cocoa harvests contributed to the slowdown in growth after 2011.

Conclusion

Ghana's economic growth over the past two decades was primarily driven by productivity improvements in the service sector, with agriculture undergoing a significant structural decline. While the industry sector saw a modest increase in GDP share, employment growth in this sector remained limited. The shift in employment from agriculture to services accelerated after 2005, but intersectoral shifts alone were insufficient to sustain high growth rates. The economic transformation reflects a broader trend of diversification and modernization, but challenges remain in achieving balanced growth across sectors.