20130812-DBS_Group-Look_out_for_sales_slowing_down_24页_727kb

报告摘要

China Property Sector Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the Chinese property sector as of August 12, 2013, focusing on sales performance, market valuation, and investment recommendations. The key points include the slowdown in sales, the impact on developers, and the outlook for the remainder of the year.

Sales Performance

July Sales Decline: Developers recorded a 20% month-over-month (m-o-m) drop in contracted sales, with a 7% decrease in average selling price (ASP).
Market Context: The decline is attributed to a low season and hot weather, which affected project visits. Some developers also faced a lack of major launches and credit tightening at the beginning of the month.
Presales Trends:
- July Presales: Fell by 21% m-o-m but increased by 12% y-o-y.
- August and September: Presales are expected to remain subdued, and the market may not see a sales spike similar to March/April 2013.
Sales Target Lock-in: Developers have locked in 62% of their sales targets, the highest in four years, with 33% y-o-y growth in contracted sales for the first seven months of 2013.
Performance Variance: Some developers, such as Beijing Capital Land and Shimao, experienced over 40% m-o-m sales declines, while others like Yuzhou saw significant growth.

Valuation and Market Analysis

Sector Valuation: The sector is trading at 7.4x FY13F PE, 0.9x P/BV, and 51% discount to NAV (historical average: 10x PE / 1.2x P/BV / 39% discount to NAV).
Investment Recommendations:
- Top Picks: COLI, Country Garden, and Franshion are highlighted for potential share price upside.
- Market Outlook: The market is expected to range trade, with more excitement needed for further share price growth.

Key Developers and Their Performance

Company Name	Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	Recommendation	Market Cap (HK$bn)	FY13F PE x
China Overseas (688 HK)	23.70	26.12	Buy	194	9.9
Country Garden (2007 HK)	4.60	4.85	Buy	85	8.6
Franshion (HK817)	2.52	3.40	Buy	23	8.1

Sales and ASP Trends

ASP Growth: In 7M13, the ASP of major developers was 13% higher than the FY12 average.
ASP Comparison:
- Vanke: 4% increase
- COLI: 2% decrease
- Shimao: 16% increase
- Country Garden: 6% increase
- Sino-Ocean: 27% increase
- Beijing Capital Land: 18% increase
- Others: Mixed performance with some showing slight decreases.

Market Performance by City

Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, Chongqing, Wuhan, Chengdu, and Tianjin property markets are analyzed, with data showing varying levels of performance and trends.

Valuation Comparison Table

Company Name	9-Aug Price (HK$)	Market Cap (HK$bn)	Cap Value (US$m)	Recom Target (HK$)	EPS Growth (%)	PE 13F x	PE Yield x	Yield x	ROE x	P/Bk x	NAV x	Disc/(Prem) to NAV x
China Overseas*	23.70	193.7	63.1	26.12	4	13	9.9	8.7	1.7	20.5	19.8	20.5
Country Garden*	4.60	84.9	13.3	4.85	12	8.6	6.6	3.8	4.3	19.2	21.8	51.6
Evergrande*	3.17	50.8	22.4	4.66	(22)	5.4	4.3	0.0	4.6	17.6	18.3	84.2
Longfor	12.32	67.0	9.8	NR n.a.	(5)	8.5	7.2	2.1	2.3	18.4	18.2	43.7
Shimao Property*	17.34	60.2	17.0	17.65	(5)	8.9	7.1	3.2	3.3	14.4	16.3	55.9
Average (Tier 1)	9.3	7.5	8.3	24	2.0	3.0	17.1	18.1	49.4	1.6	27.8	14.1

Tier 2 and Tier 3 Players

Tier 2 developers like Agile Property, COGO, and Franshion are also evaluated, with mixed performance and varying valuations.
Tier 3 developers, including BJ Cap Land, BJ North Star, and C C Land, show lower market caps and varied earnings growth and valuations.

Conclusion

The Chinese property sector experienced a slowdown in sales during July 2013, primarily due to seasonal factors and hot weather. Despite this, the sector has locked in a significant portion of its sales targets, and the overall sales growth for the first seven months was robust. The market is currently undervalued, with most developers expected to meet their targets. However, further share price appreciation may require additional market excitement. Key developers such as COLI, Country Garden, and Franshion are recommended for investment.

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