2018年-世界发展银行全球_Global_Economic_Prospects_January_2018___Broad-Based_Upturn_but_for_How_Long__263页_8mb

2018 Global Economic Prospects Summary

Core Content

The January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report, published by the World Bank Group, presents a comprehensive analysis of the global and regional economic outlook. It highlights a broad-based economic upturn, but emphasizes the uncertainty of its sustainability. The report also explores the decline in potential growth and outlines policy options to address this issue, particularly in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Additionally, it includes two special focus sections: one on the impact of the 2014-16 oil price collapse and another on education demographics and global inequality.

Main Points

Global Outlook

• Cyclical Upturn: The global economy is experiencing a broad-based recovery, driven by increased investment and trade, and supported by favorable financial conditions and policy environments.
• Potential Growth Decline: Potential output growth has slowed significantly, both globally and in EMDEs, with the global rate at 2.5% (0.5 percentage points below the long-term average) and EMDEs at even lower levels.
• Downside Risks: The report identifies several risks to the global outlook, including financial stress, increased protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and slower-than-expected productivity growth.
• Policy Shift: As output gaps close, the focus is shifting from demand-side policies to structural reforms that can enhance potential growth and living standards.

Regional Outlooks

• East Asia and Pacific (EAP): Expected to grow faster as commodity prices rise and the effects of earlier trade shocks fade.
• Europe and Central Asia (ECA): Recovery is expected, though challenges remain in terms of policy coordination and economic rebalancing.
• Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): Robust growth is anticipated, supported by strong investment and trade performance.
• Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Growth is expected to improve as oil prices rise and the impact of earlier oil production cuts diminishes.
• South Asia (SAR): Growth remains modest, with risks related to policy uncertainty and economic structure.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Growth is expected to be steady, but structural challenges persist.

Key Information

Potential Growth

• Definition: Potential growth refers to the maximum output an economy can achieve when labor and capital are fully utilized.
• Drivers of Slowdown:
  • Weaker capital accumulation: A major factor in the slowdown of potential growth.
  • Declining total factor productivity (TFP): A significant contributor, especially in EMDEs.
  • Demographic trends: Slower labor force growth in many regions.
• Future Outlook: These factors are expected to persist, leading to a further decline in potential growth by 0.2 percentage points globally and 0.5 in EMDEs over the next decade.

Policy Recommendations

• Invest in Physical and Human Capital: Enhancing infrastructure and education can help boost potential growth.
• Encourage Labor Participation: Policies that support employment and workforce development are essential.
• Improve Institutions: Strengthening governance and reducing corruption can enhance economic performance.
• Structural Reforms: Needed to counteract the decline in potential growth and improve long-term outcomes.

Special Focus 1: Oil Price Collapse (2014-16)

• Causes: The collapse was driven by U.S. shale oil production, OPEC policies, and global demand trends.
• Impact:
  • Oil Exporters: Suffered from reduced revenues and fiscal stress.
  • Oil Importers: Experienced lower input costs, but the benefits were limited due to weak domestic demand and policy responses.
• Policy Response:
  • Oil Exporters: Some reduced energy subsidies and implemented structural reforms, though not sufficiently.
  • Oil Importers: Faced challenges in using lower prices to improve fiscal space and investment.

Special Focus 2: Education and Inequality

• Skill Composition Shift: A growing, better-educated workforce in EMDEs is expected to reduce global inequality.
• Impact on Inequality:
  • Between Countries: Education can lower inequality by improving productivity and economic outcomes.
  • Within Countries: Education may help mitigate the effects of urbanization, skill-biased technological change, and trade on inequality.
• Policy Implications: Investment in education is crucial for long-term growth and inequality reduction.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1.1: Summary of global economic prospects.
• Figure 1.2: Global risks and policy challenges.
• Figure 1.3: Economic performance of advanced economies.
• Figure 1.4: U.S. economic activity.
• Figure 1.5: Euro Area economic activity.
• Figure 1.6: Japan's economic performance.
• Figure 1.7: China's economic outlook.
• Figure 1.8: Global trade trends.
• Figure 1.9: Financial market conditions.
• Figure 1.10: Commodity market dynamics.
• Figure 1.11: Activity in EMDEs.
• Figure 1.12: Activity in commodity-exporting EMDEs.
• Figure 1.13: Activity in commodity-importing EMDEs (excluding China).
• Figure 1.14: EMDE growth prospects.
• Figure 1.15: Global growth forecasts and risk balance.
• Figure 1.16: Upside risks of strong growth in major economies.
• Figure 1.17: Financial market risks.
• Figure 1.18: Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
• Figure 1.19: Trade protectionism.
• Figure 1.20: Slowing potential growth.
• Figure 1.21: Monetary and fiscal policies in advanced economies.

Conclusion

The 2018 Global Economic Prospects report underscores the importance of structural reforms and investment in human and physical capital to sustain economic growth and reduce inequality. While the current global recovery is broad-based, the decline in potential growth poses a long-term challenge. The report calls for public action and policy improvements, especially in EMDEs, to address these issues and support future economic development.