2007年-世界发展银行全球_Global_Economic_Prospects_2007___Managing_the_Next_Wave_of_Globalization_208页_4mb

Global Economic Prospects Summary

Core Content

This report, Global Economic Prospects 2007, examines the trajectory of globalization and its implications for global economic growth, income distribution, labor markets, and environmental sustainability. It outlines the potential for continued economic integration and the challenges that may arise in the coming years.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Global Economic Outlook (2006–2030)

• Global Growth Trends:

  • Global economic growth surged to 3.9% in 2006, with developing countries growing at 7.0%, more than twice the rate of high-income countries (3.1%).
  • The global labor force is expected to grow from 3.1 billion in 2006 to 4.1 billion by 2030.
  • The dependency ratio is likely to fall, supporting sustained global growth.

• Income Growth:

  • Developing countries' per capita incomes are projected to rise at 3.1% annually, compared to 2.1% in the previous period.
  • By 2030, average per capita income in developing countries is expected to reach $11,000, compared to $4,800 in 2006.
  • High-income countries will also see significant income increases, with the average income of the children of today's baby boomers expected to be nearly double that of their parents.

• Global Output:

  • The global economy's output is projected to rise from $35 trillion in 2005 to $72 trillion in 2030, at an average annual rate of 3%.
  • Developing countries' share of global output is expected to increase from about 20% to nearly 30%, and their share of global purchasing power could surpass 50%.

• Global Trade Expansion:

  • Global trade in goods and services is expected to grow faster than output and could more than triple to $27 trillion in 2030.
  • Developing countries will account for roughly half of this increase, indicating their growing role in the global economy.

• Downside Risks:

  • While the outlook is positive, risks such as overheating in some developing countries, housing market downturns in high-income countries, and oil market disruptions could impact growth.
  • These risks are considered manageable, but they could lead to sharper slowdowns if not addressed.

2. The Coming Globalization

• Drivers of Globalization:

  • The growing economic weight of developing countries, especially China, India, and Brazil.
  • Increased productivity from global production chains, particularly in services.
  • Accelerated technology diffusion due to lower communication costs and better access to the Internet.

• Globalization's Impact on Labor Markets:

  • The integration of large emerging economies and the global sourcing of services will create new challenges for labor markets.
  • Wages may outpace profit income, increasing inequality.
  • Migration from agriculture to services can reduce poverty, but inequality could rise if intersectoral mobility is restricted.

• Key Challenges:

  • Rising inequality, both within and across countries.
  • Tensions in labor markets due to increased competition and skill gaps.
  • Environmental pressures, including climate change, marine fisheries depletion, and the spread of epidemics.

3. Income Distribution and Poverty Reduction

• Global Income Distribution:

  • The global middle class is expected to grow significantly, with a shift in composition toward more services-based economies.
  • Developing countries are likely to move up the global income distribution ladder, while other regions may lag.

• Poverty Reduction:

  • Sustained growth is expected to reduce global poverty significantly.
  • The number of people living in extreme poverty ($1 a day) is projected to fall from 1.1 billion to about 550 million by 2030.
  • The number of people living on less than $2 a day is expected to decline from 2.7 billion to under 1.9 billion.

• Policy Implications:

  • Policies that support education, labor mobility, and trade reform can help reduce inequality and poverty.
  • Trade liberalization can have pro-poor effects, depending on the initial protection structure.
  • Ending aid could hurt the poor, highlighting the importance of development assistance.

4. Environmental Risks to Growth

• Immediate Risks:

  • Epidemics, such as SARS, could disrupt economic activity, though they are generally short-lived.

• Medium-Term Risks:

  • Marine fisheries are expected to level off, reducing future food security.
  • Climate change is projected to increase temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions, with long-term effects on global growth and environmental sustainability.

• Long-Term Risks:

  • Climate change poses a major threat to long-term growth and development.
  • Carbon emissions from developing countries are expected to rise, but global trading in carbon emissions is growing.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Addressing environmental threats through global cooperation and sustainable development policies is essential for maintaining long-term growth.

Conclusion

The report outlines a positive outlook for global economic growth over the next 25 years, with developing countries playing a central role. However, it also highlights the need for policies to address growing inequality, labor market disruptions, and environmental challenges. The integration of the global economy will continue to offer opportunities for productivity and income growth, but these must be managed carefully to ensure equitable and sustainable outcomes.