2025-06-10-Jefferies-巴黎航展问题集_79页_561kb

Summary of Jefferies Aerospace & Defense Electronics Equity Research Report - June 10, 2025

Key Insights & Market Summary

• Air Show Performance: Traditionally, Aero suppliers outperform (+3% in the month leading up to major air shows) followed by aircraft OEMs (+1%), versus the S&P. This trend holds through the event and one month post-event.
• Global Uncertainties: Tariffs, recession fears, and geopolitical tensions are key risks impacting airline demand, pricing, and supply chains. Defense spending is accelerating in Europe, supporting growth in platforms like the Rafale and Eurofighter.
• Valuations & Catalysts: Analysts recommend a "Buy" rating for companies with strong aftermarket growth (e.g., GE, HEICO) and defense tailwinds (Thales, Leonardo). Risks include P&L pressures from high R&D spend and pricing challenges.

Analyst Recommendations & Ratings

• Strong Buys: GE ($300 target), HEICO ($340), Rolls-Royce ($920), Beta Technologies (private)
• Holds/Fair Value: Honeywell ($235), Safran ($290), Collins ($27)
• Underperforms: Hensoldt (€60 target), Hexcel ($55)

Top Companies & Analyst Views

1. AerCap (N/C): Focus on global tariffs' impact on new vs. leasing demand, asset utilization, and competitor dynamics.
2. BAE Systems (Hold): Near-term budget uncertainty in the US, but strong defense growth in Europe. Defensiveness due to geopolitical risks.
3. Lockheed Martin (Hold): International export opportunities (F-35, munitions) drive growth, while ramp-up challenges persist for platforms like CH-53K.
4. Safran (Buy): Strong aftermarket growth for LEAP/CFM56, but durability and pricing headwinds.

Key Drivers for Defensives & Growth

• Defense: Eurofighter, Rafale, and nuclear-capable jets will benefit from increased European spending. Defense margins pressured by lower volumes but aided by restocking (e.g., munitions).
• Commercial A&D: Aircraft deliveries stabilize (e.g., MAX at 42/mo by year-end) but threats from China (e.g., C919) and competition from newer OEMs (e.g., COMAC) loom.
• Tech Innovation: eVTOLs (Beta, JetZero), additive manufacturing (GE, Moog), and Power-by-the-Hour trends open new revenue channels.

Valuation & Risks

• Valuation: Growth-focused companies (e.g., GE, HEICO, Rolls-Royce) command higher multiples.
• Risks: Geopolitical escalations (e.g., Ukraine ceasefire, G7-Qatar air alliance) could disrupt demand; P&Ls pressured by tariffs (e.g., GE, Collins).

Conclusion

The aerospace and defense sector is poised for growth amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and defense spending acceleration. Analysts highlight the resilience of the aftermarket and diversification into space and eVTOLs as key long-term catalysts. Defensive plays remain appealing given stable demand for military platforms.