20250718-东亚期货-国债衍生品周报_3页_838kb

报告摘要

Bullish Factors: Loose monetary policy indicated by low overnight repo rates (around 1.3%–1.4%) and strong bond demand post-quarter, supporting positive sentiment and bond market confidence.
Bearish Factors: Rising policy expectations (e.g., "anti-inner-卷ing" measures and real estate policies) create stock-bond market divergence, potentially suppressing bonds; tightening monetary conditions due to banking liabilities and increased government bond supply, leading to yield increases.

Short-term recommendation: Market suggests观望 (hesitation), focusing on upcoming data releases or central bank operations for guidance.

Visual data from Wind sources displays trends in treasury yields, funding rates, term spreads, futures positions, basis, and spread differentials, offering insights into market dynamics and potential shifts.

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