2021-12-06-瑞士信贷集团-气候转型超级材料之硼_脱碳的第五种元素_31页_1mb

Summary of "Climate Transition Super Materials: Boron – The 5th Element of Decarbonisation"

Core Content

This report introduces Boron as a key Climate Transition Super Material, highlighting its critical role in various sectors of the global effort to achieve Net Zero emissions. Boron is positioned as the 5th Element of Decarbonisation due to its widespread use in technologies that support the energy transition and broader climate initiatives.

Main Points

• Boron's Versatility: Boron is a nonmetallic, heat-resistant element with applications across multiple industries, including glass, fiberglass, ceramics, agriculture, and energy technologies.
• Climate Transition Exposure: Boron is essential in electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy systems, sustainable agriculture, and building energy efficiency.
• Demand Projections: Under a high growth scenario aligned with the IEA Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050, boron demand could increase 10x by 2050, with over 90% of demand coming from climate technologies.
• Supply Constraints: The supply of boron is highly concentrated in two countries, and new mine projects have long lead times, which may exacerbate supply shortages as demand grows.
• Circular Economy Potential: Recycling can help mitigate supply risks, but current practices for many climate transition materials, including boron, are still limited.
• Environmental Impact: The production and use of boron have environmental implications, including water usage, biodiversity impact, and waste management, which must be closely monitored.

Key Information

Applications of Boron in Climate Transition Technologies

• Electric Vehicles (EVs):

  • Used in NdFeB permanent magnets for motor efficiency and weight reduction.
  • Used in high-strength steel (46kg per vehicle) and safety features like airbags and brake pads.
  • By 2025, 16.5m EVs are expected to be built using boron-laden magnets.
  • By 2050, EVs will account for 90% of the magnet market.

• Renewables:

  • Wind turbines: Boron is used in fiberglass blades (5–7% of blade weight) and NdFeB magnets (0.24–117kg per turbine).
  • Solar PV: Boron is used in glass cells (0.0008kg per MW).
  • Nuclear reactors: Boron is used in control rods and corrosion inhibition.
  • Hydrogen fuel cells: Boron is a key component of sodium borohydride.

• Sustainable Agriculture:

  • Boron is an essential micronutrient for plant growth.
  • Used in fertilizers to increase crop yield and reduce emissions.
  • Soil boron application rates range from 0.5–3 lbs per acre.
  • Boron in agriculture accounts for ~15% of total end-use demand.

• Building Energy Efficiency:

  • Boron is used in fiberglass insulation to reduce heat loss.
  • With 39% of global GHG emissions from buildings, zero-carbon retrofitting is expected to significantly increase boron demand.
  • By 2050, boron use in insulation could triple from 117kt in 2020.

Demand and Supply Dynamics

• Demand Growth: Boron demand is projected to increase by 4–10x by 2050, depending on the growth scenario.
• Supply Shortfall: Under a high growth scenario, demand outstrips supply by 30% in 2028.
• Production-Demand Index: Measures the scale of production required to meet demand from climate technologies.
• Technology Concentration Index: Measures how widely a material is used across different climate technologies.

Investment Opportunities

• Boron Miners: Rio Tinto and ORE have significant boron exposure, with Rio Tinto producing 480 kt/yr and potentially 160 kt/yr from the Jadar project.
• Other Miners: The report identifies other boron miners not previously highlighted.

Conclusion

Boron is a high-impact, cross-cutting super material that will play a pivotal role in the global transition to low-carbon technologies. As demand outstrips supply, especially under high-growth scenarios, investment opportunities in boron-related sectors are expected to grow significantly. The report highlights the importance of monitoring environmental impacts and exploring circular economy solutions to ensure sustainable and efficient use of this essential element.

Key Charts Overview

• Figure 1: Shows exponential growth in super material demand for climate technologies.
• Figure 3: Highlights boron's demand surpassing current production levels.
• Figure 5: Projects boron demand outgrowing supply by 2028.
• Figure 7: Projects demand growth for critical minerals by 2040.
• Figure 8: Shows growth of selected metals and minerals under the IEA NZE scenario.
• Figure 9: Compares GWP of renewables vs fossil fuels.
• Figure 11: Illustrates the demand opportunity matrix for super materials.
• Figure 14: Shows global boron demand by end-use sector.
• Figure 16: Projects EV sales share under different policy scenarios.
• Figure 19 & 20: Illustrate the growth of renewable energy capacity under different scenarios.

Investment Implications

• High Growth Scenario: Boron demand could reach 92,100kt by 2050.
• Low Growth Scenario: Boron demand could reach 54,000kt by 2050.
• Supply Risk: Due to concentration in two countries and long project lead times, supply shortages may occur.
• Circular Economy: Recycling can help reduce dependency on primary supply.
• Environmental Considerations: Water stress, biodiversity, and waste management are key factors in assessing boron's environmental impact.

Summary of Indices

• Production-Demand Index: Measures the scale of production required to meet demand.
• Technology Concentration Index: Measures the cross-cutting nature of a material's use in climate technologies.
• Combined Indices: Used to rank and compare the attractiveness of different super materials.

Final Notes

This report serves as an initiation into a new framework for assessing Climate Transition Super Materials, with boron as the first material in the series. It outlines demand and supply dynamics, environmental impact, and investment opportunities across various sectors.