2021-12-06-瑞士信贷集团-亚洲反馈_硬件_中国智能手机库存调整延长_设备之间的差距越来越大_96页_2mb

Technology Sector Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the current state and outlook for the technology sector, with a focus on hardware and electronic components in the context of the Chinese smartphone market and broader industry trends. The key themes include prolonged inventory adjustments, supply chain constraints, and the impact on production and procurement schedules.

Main Points

Smartphone Production and Inventory Adjustments

• China's Smartphone Market:
  • Prolonged inventory adjustments are expected to continue, with full-scale recovery in orders unlikely until March or April 2022.
  • Smartphone production for CY21 is planned at 1.4bn units (+7% YoY), rising to 1.6bn units in CY22 (+14% YoY), but there is no visible upturn in end demand.
  • The CY21 iPhone production plan has been reduced by 5% to 258mn units (+13% YoY) due to tight semiconductor supply, especially for the iPhone 13, which has delayed production start-up.
  • iPhone 13 production could fall short by around 10mn units due to the ongoing semiconductor shortage.

Disparity in Device Trends

• Analog, Discrete, and Logic Semiconductors: These markets remain buoyant, showing strong demand.
• Passive Components: Orders have been weakening since September, with a full-scale recovery expected only after March or April 2022.
• Notebook PCs: Production is expected to increase in CY22, but device and power supply makers anticipate a single-digit contraction.
• 5G Smartphone Production: The 2021 5G smartphone production plan was reduced from 600mn to 560mn units, and 2022 production could underperform its target of 750mn units.

Semiconductor and Supply Chain Constraints

• Supply Tightness: The supply of smartphone chipsets (APs, RFICs, PMICs), analog semiconductors, discrete semiconductors, and passive components remains tight.
• Impact on iPhone Supply Chain: The shortage has delayed iPhone 13 production, pushing back procurement of other components to Jan-Mar 2022.
• Foldable Smartphones: Samsung is cautiously planning for 13mn units in 2022, compared to 8mn in 2021, with the possibility of a slight increase. A foldable iPhone launch may be delayed to 2024.

Automotive and Consumer Electronics

• Automotive Demand: Chinese and Tier 1 automakers expect sales to grow from 3mn to 5.5-6.0mn vehicles in 2022, but battery supply may limit this growth.
• Automotive Semiconductors: Supply for analog and discrete semiconductors is improving from Nov-Dec, but still a bottleneck for other applications.
• Consumer Electronics: Sales of solar and wind power generation devices are brisk in China.

Key Stocks and Investment Outlook

Electronic Components Sector

• Murata Manufacturing (6981) and Taiyo Yuden (6976) are highlighted for potential long-term earnings growth from automotive MLCCs.
• Ibiden (4062) is expected to benefit from flip-chip package substrates becoming larger and more layered.
• MinebeaMitsumi (6479) is the top pick due to its broad portfolio and stable earnings expansion.
• Renesas Technology (6723) is recommended as it is relatively immune to semiconductor adjustments.

Semiconductor and SPE Sector

• Rohm (6963) is still too early to price in a cycle peak-out, as demand for analog discrete semiconductors remains strong.
• Semiconductor and SPE plays are viewed with caution, except for EUV-related names.

Consumer Electronics Sector

• Apple is expected to launch a VR headset in 2022, but likely for the B2B market rather than consumers.
• Sony (6758) plans to launch a next-generation PlayStation VR headset (PSVR2) in 2022.
• A consumer version of Apple's VR headset may not be launched until 2023 or 2024.

Key Charts

• Figure 1 & 2: Show global smartphone production volume, highlighting the decline from CY2021 to CY2022.
• Figure 3: Provides iPhone production forecasts, showing a significant drop in production for CY21 and delayed procurement.
• Figure 4 & 5: Outline production plans for major smartphone makers, including Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, Huawei, and Apple.
• Figure 6 & 7: Illustrate IT hardware production plans and the impact of inventory adjustments.
• Figure 8: Shows the current state of IT hardware production plans as of early December 2021.

Conclusion

The technology sector is experiencing a prolonged inventory adjustment in the Chinese smartphone market, with supply constraints affecting various components. While some segments like analog and discrete semiconductors remain strong, others such as passive components are seeing a slowdown. The market is expected to find a bottom in orders around March or April 2022, with potential buying opportunities emerging in early 2022. Key stocks in the electronic components sector are recommended based on their resilience and growth potential in the face of these challenges.