2024-02-28-国际清算银行-利润驱动型通货膨胀的货币政策（英）_51页_1mb

Summary of Monetary Policy with Profit-Driven Inflation

Core Context: This paper addresses profit-driven inflation by developing a New Keynesian model with reservation profits, derived from evidence that current inflation is fueled by rising firm profits (e.g., from energy price shocks), unlike the cost-push drivers in the 1970s. Firms retrench inefficiently due to sticky prices, ignoring social costs, leading to excess supply contractions.

Key Mechanisms in the Model:

• Energy price shocks cause inflation through consumption, production, and profit channels (higher marginal costs force some firms to retrench).
• Sticky price firms prefer retrenchment if marginal costs exceed steady-state levels, amplifying inflation unproductively.
• Reservation profits create a retrenchment externality, reducing output and increasing inflation.

Optimal Policy Recommendations:

• Follow a pecking order: First shield the supply side with tight monetary policy to minimize retrenchment, then split the shock's burden between supply and demand if shielding becomes too costly.
• When energy shocks are large, fiscal interventions (e.g., redistribution from high-profit to low-profit firms or high-income households) can restore monetary policy effectiveness by subsidizing sticky price firms or taxing flexible ones.

Implications:

• Profit-driven inflation requires nuanced policy targeting inefficient firm behavior, potentially involving balanced-budget fiscal tools.
• The model shows monetary policy can maintain a positive inflation gap while ensuring firm survival or sharing costs, depending on shock magnitude.

Conclusion

The authors argue that optimal policy should correct for retrenchment inefficiencies, with fiscal redistribution complements when monetary policy loses traction. This framework highlights the role of profit dynamics in modern inflation.