20260118-国泰期货-Crude_Oil_Weekly_Report_29页_3mb

报告摘要

Geopolitical Risks: Fluctuations in geopolitical risks are expected in the short term, and the market should temporarily observe and wait.
Supply: Global crude oil supply is expected to remain ample in 2026, with non-OPEC+ countries (especially the Americas) driving most of the growth. U.S. shale oil production is at historical highs and remains resilient despite low prices. Venezuela's export disruptions are seen as a potential supply signal rather than a long-term risk.
Demand: Global crude oil demand growth has slowed to about 0.8% annually, with China being a key driver in the Asia-Pacific region. Demand is shifting from transportation fuels to petrochemical feedstocks, with the latter accounting for over 60% of demand growth. Weak seasonal demand and refinery maintenance limit short-term demand support.
Inventory: Supply growth is expected to outpace demand, leading to inventory accumulation and price pressure. U.S. business inventories are stable, while Cushing region inventories remain below historical averages. European diesel inventories are declining, and gasoline stocks are accumulating.
Price and Spread: Brent may rebound after a peak, while WTI and SC could face downward pressure. SC is expected to decline less than overseas markets. Futures and spot basis differences, monthly spreads, and net positions are all key factors to monitor.

Short-term Outlook: A wait-and-see approach is recommended due to potential geopolitical fluctuations. Brent may strengthen, but WTI and SC will likely face downward pressure.
Mid-term Outlook: Oil prices may decline further, with Brent potentially testing $50/barrel and SC testing 380 yuan/barrel. However, a long-term downturn is unlikely to occur overnight.
Macroeconomic Factors: Monitor potential macroeconomic reversals, as oil price volatility may intensify.

Supply Growth: Non-OPEC+ supply is projected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026.
U.S. Shale Oil: Maintains historical highs above 13.8 million barrels per day, with declining costs ensuring resilience.
China's Refinery Rates: Operating rates of Chinese refineries have declined, while those in the U.S. and Europe have stabilized or rebounded.
Inventory Trends: U.S. inventories are stable, while Cushing inventories are below historical averages. European diesel stocks are declining, and gasoline stocks are accumulating.
Price Outlook: Brent may rebound, but WTI and SC are expected to face downward pressure. SC's decline may be less severe than overseas markets.
Net Positions: Net long positions have rebounded, indicating a shift in market sentiment.

Unilateral Strategy: Hold short positions, with the option to add more if prices rise.
Interperiod Strategy: Regularly hold or liquidate light positions, and wait for future opportunities to establish or increase positions.
Cross Variety Strategy: Consider EFS spread or marginal reversal, SC Dubai or reversal.

Macroeconomic Uncertainties: Global economic, geopolitical, and climate factors remain uncertain.
OPEC+ Internal Conflicts: Price wars due to internal divisions could affect the market.
U.S. Shale Technology: Further breakthroughs may increase supply and impact prices.
Macroeconomic Sentiment: Changes in sentiment could lead to increased volatility.

The report is prepared by Huang Liunan, Chief Analyst and Administrative Head of Energy and Chemical Group at Guotai Junan Futures.
The data used is from compliant sources, and the analysis is based on professional understanding.
The report is independent, objective, and unbiased, and the conclusions are not influenced by any third party.

The information is derived from publicly available data and is not guaranteed to be accurate, complete, or reliable.
The report does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon for specific operations.
The report is not suitable for individual clients and does not provide private advice.
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Investors should seek professional advice before making investment decisions and should not use this report as the sole reference.

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