2009年-世界发展银行全球_Palestinian_Economic_Prospects___Gaza_Recovery_and_West_Bank_Revival_43页_997kb

Palestinian Economic Prospects: Gaza Recovery and West Bank Revival Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the economic conditions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (WB&G) as of June 2009, highlighting the challenges faced by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the broader implications of Israeli economic restrictions. It also reviews recent political developments and the effectiveness of donor support and private sector initiatives in fostering economic recovery.

Main Points

1. Economic Overview

• Real GDP Growth: In 2008, real GDP growth in WB&G was estimated at 2%, resulting in a 1% decline in real per capita GDP. This growth was largely confined to the West Bank, with Gaza experiencing severe economic decline due to the ongoing Israeli blockade.
• Income Levels: Per capita income in 2008 was just over US$1,000, significantly below pre-2000 levels.
• Unemployment and Poverty: Unemployment reached 40% in Gaza and 19% in the West Bank, with poverty rates at 30% and 19% respectively, indicating a marked deterioration in economic conditions.
• Fiscal Dependency: External aid accounted for nearly 30% of GDP in 2008, highlighting the PA's reliance on donor support to prevent fiscal collapse.

2. Macroeconomic Outlook

• Inflation: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 7% in 2008, far exceeding the 3-4% projected in the Palestinian Reform and Development Plan (PRDP). Gaza experienced a higher rate of inflation (10%) due to the blockade.
• Exchange Rate: The NIS appreciated by 15% against the dollar, worsening the impact of inflation on real incomes.
• Growth Projections: Under a baseline scenario, real GDP growth is projected to rise to 5% in 2009, 6.5% in 2010, and 7.5% in 2011, contingent on the easing of Israeli restrictions and donor support.

3. Private Sector Prospects

• Investment Decline: Private investment showed little recovery, with claims falling by over 6% to approximately $1.4 billion in the first half of 2008.
• Industrial Output: Manufacturing output in Gaza was 23% lower than its 2005 peak and nearly 20% lower than in 1999. Agricultural output was also significantly reduced.
• Quick-Impact Projects (QIPs): QIPs were designed to attract private investment and provide near-term stimulus, but have not yet yielded tangible results due to continued restrictions.
• Private Sector Initiatives: The Palestinian Public Private Partnership was established in 2008 to guide private sector strategy, and some projects like the introduction of a second mobile telephone provider were launched, though progress has been limited.

4. Political Developments

• Israeli Military Operation: The 2008-2009 conflict in Gaza caused extensive destruction, including 15,000 homes damaged or destroyed and severe damage to public infrastructure and utilities.
• Government Leadership: Dr. Salam Fayyad was reappointed as Prime Minister of the Palestinian Caretaker Government, leading a new government with Fatah members. Reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah continue, mediated by Egypt.
• Netanyahu's Approach: Prime Minister Netanyahu introduced the concept of "economic peace," emphasizing economic development as a prerequisite for peace talks.

Key Information

5. Parallel Actions

A. Palestinian Authority

• Fiscal Consolidation: The PA reduced the recurrent fiscal deficit to 19% of GDP in 2008 from 24% in 2007, due to expenditure restraint and reduced subsidies.
• Wage Bill: The wage bill decreased by 1% in nominal terms but increased by 3% in real terms due to clearing of wage arrears.
• Non-Wage Expenditure: Nonwage expenditure commitments were only 1% higher than budgeted, with significant portions allocated to the Ministry of Interior and National Security.
• PFM Reforms: The PA continued its PFM reform program, with a focus on transparency and performance-based budgeting. The 2009 budget was structured around program-based line ministries.

B. Israel

• Gaza Closure: The Israeli closure regime in Gaza severely restricted movement and access, hindering economic activity and reconstruction efforts.
• Impact of Closure: The closure led to the destruction of significant economic infrastructure and limited the ability of businesses to operate. The number of truckloads entering Gaza dropped to zero in 2008.
• West Bank Movement: Restrictions on movement and access in the West Bank remained a key obstacle to economic growth, despite some improvements in security.

C. Donor Community

• Gaza Conference: The Sharm el-Sheikh Conference in March 2009 pledged substantial funds for Gaza reconstruction, but progress has been limited due to continued restrictions.
• Donor Support: Donor aid is seen as a stabilizing measure rather than a catalyst for sustainable growth, given the ongoing economic constraints and political instability.

Conclusion

• Economic Restrictions: The report emphasizes that economic restrictions, both from Israel and the political environment, have significantly hindered private sector growth and economic development.
• Need for Integration: For a viable Palestinian state, Gaza and the West Bank must be treated as an integrated economic entity, rather than separate zones.
• Donor Role: Donor funding should be accompanied by efforts to improve the environment for private sector growth and reduce reliance on external aid.
• Challenges Ahead: Even with the easing of restrictions, the Palestinian economy remains below its potential, with per capita income projected to be 27% lower than in 2000 by 2011.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Per capita GDP in WB&G from 1997 to 2008, showing a decline.
• Table 1: Industrial decline in Gaza, indicating a sharp reduction in establishments and employees.
• Table 2: PA 2008 expenditures by function and economic classification, highlighting the dominant role of the Ministry of Interior and National Security.
• Table 3: External financing requirements for the PA in 2009.
• Table 4: UN Gaza Flash Appeal, indicating the scale of humanitarian needs.
• Table 5: Pledges at the Gaza Conference, March 2, 2009.

Recommendations

• Support PA Institutions: Continued support for the PA's budget and institutions is essential for maintaining public services and fiscal stability.
• Reduce Restrictions: Efforts must be made to reduce economic restrictions to enable private sector growth and sustainable development.
• Promote Integration: Economic development should focus on integrating Gaza and the West Bank rather than creating isolated economic zones.
• Enhance Donor Coordination: Donor support should be aligned with long-term economic development goals and not just short-term stabilization measures.