2012年-世界发展银行全球_Tourism_Sector_in_Panama___Regional_Economic_Impacts_and_the_Potential_to_Benefit_the_Poor_25页_776kb

Summary of "Tourism Sector in Panama: Regional Economic Impacts and the Potential to Benefit the Poor"

Core Content

This working paper analyzes the economic and poverty impacts of the tourism sector in Panama at the regional level. It emphasizes that while tourism has significant growth potential for the country, its benefits for the poor are not automatic and depend on the structure of supply chains, the way tourists spend their money, and the local economic context.

Main Points

• Tourism Growth in Panama:
  Tourism has grown rapidly in Panama, contributing at least 6% to GDP. International tourist arrivals increased from around 1.3 million in 2006 to 1.7 million in 2010. Foreign tourist expenditures totaled around $960 million in 2006, equivalent to 6% of GDP.

  • About half of all tourist visits are direct transit, while a quarter are for recreation.
  • The tourism sector is also attracting retirees from North America and Europe, contributing to real estate development in areas like Panama City, Bocas del Toro, and Chiriqui.

• Tourism and Poverty Reduction:

  • Panama has a "dual economy" with high inequality, where urban areas are more developed than rural and indigenous regions.
  • Almost 85% of the poor live in rural and indigenous areas, where poverty rates are more than twice as high as in urban areas.
  • Tourism could be a key driver for poverty reduction in rural and indigenous areas by creating employment, increasing wages, and improving access to infrastructure and services.
  • However, tourism may also have adverse effects on local communities, such as loss of access to natural resources, environmental degradation, and cultural erosion.

• Tourism and Regional Development:

  • The tourism sector has large multiplier effects on the Panamanian economy.
  • The impact of tourism on growth and poverty varies significantly by region, depending on how tourism activities are structured and how the local population participates in the sector.
  • The study highlights the importance of understanding the local economic context and the distribution of benefits within the tourism value chain.

Key Findings

• Tourism as a Source of Income:
  In rural areas, tourism is a major source of off-farm income, potentially exceeding the importance of agricultural activities.

  • Income from agriculture contributes 10–20% to total household income in rural areas, while skilled and unskilled labor contributes up to 40–50%.
  • Indigenous households are particularly vulnerable and benefit less from tourism compared to non-indigenous households.

• Tourism and Employment:

  • Tourism creates employment opportunities, especially in the service sector, which is more accessible to non-poor households.
  • The poor and indigenous communities are more reliant on agriculture, which is less affected by tourism growth.
  • Tourism can have indirect benefits for the poor through wage increases and improved access to local goods and services.

• Methodology:

  • The study uses a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model to assess the regional and distributional impacts of tourism.
  • It combines Input-Output (I-O) and Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) data with household survey data to estimate the effects of tourism on growth and poverty.
  • The semi-input-output (SIO) model is used to simulate the effects of tourism on production and trade, assuming fixed prices and supply constraints.

• Distribution of Benefits:

  • The distribution of tourism benefits depends on the structure of supply chains and the extent of backward and forward linkages.
  • Cultural and ecotourism can have different impacts on local economies depending on how local goods and services are integrated into the tourism value chain.
  • Tourism spending in certain areas, such as Bocas del Toro and Chiriqui, is expected to more than double, indicating strong potential for regional development.

Regional Impacts

• Province-level Analysis:

  • The study focuses on four province archetypes: Panama Province, Bocas del Toro, Chiriqui, and the rest of Panama.
  • The tourism multiplier model estimates the direct and indirect impacts of tourism spending on income and employment at the provincial level.
  • Disaggregated results are provided for different social strata, including urban poor, rural poor, indigenous, and non-indigenous populations.

• Challenges and Risks:

  • Uncontrolled tourism development poses risks to the environment and social fabric, especially in areas near the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor.
  • The leakage of benefits to non-local labor and inputs may reduce the potential for poverty reduction in local communities.

Conclusion

Tourism in Panama has the potential to significantly boost economic growth and reduce poverty, particularly in rural and indigenous areas. However, its impact depends on the structure of the tourism value chain and the extent to which local populations are integrated into it. The study underscores the need for policies that promote inclusive tourism development, ensuring that the poor and indigenous communities benefit from the sector's growth.