20151028-Maybank_KERPL-Expect_Weak_3Q15_11页_738kb

报告摘要

PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) Summary

Core Content

PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) is a Thai petrochemical company with a current share price of THB59.25 and a target price of THB62.00, representing a +5% increase. The company's market capitalization is THB7.5B, while the average daily trade value (ADTV) is USD22M.

Main Points

3Q15 Performance:
- Expected profit of THB1.7B, down 81% QoQ and 78% YoY, primarily due to THB2.5B stock loss, THB2.2B FX loss, and lower aromatics profit from a plant shutdown.
- Refinery profits were impacted by the USD17/bbl drop in Dubai crude prices, but market GRM remained solid at USD5.10/bbl.
- Petrochemicals maintained steady performance due to high plant utilisation and price resilience, with olefins at 93% and HDPE prices averaging USD1,234/tonne.
- Earnings are expected to recover in 4Q15 with the resumption of the aromatics plant and potential absence of large stock losses.
Valuation Metrics:
- PTTGC is currently trading at 1.0x FY16 P/BV, which is 1 SD below its 3-year average.
- The company is expected to underperform the local downstream peers due to weaker earnings outlook and lower petrochemical prices in 2016.
- The share price historically tracks petrochemical prices, which are expected to weaken in 2016.
Financial Highlights:
- Revenue: THB409,151.9M (FY15E), THB418,706.2M (FY16E), THB446,014.4M (FY17E).
- Core Net Profit: THB28,086.5M (FY15E), THB26,772.7M (FY16E), THB30,081.8M (FY17E).
- Core EPS: THB6.23 (FY15E), THB5.94 (FY16E), THB6.67 (FY17E).
- P/BV: 1.1 (FY15E), 1.0 (FY16E), 1.0 (FY17E).
- Net Dividend Yield: 4.8% (FY15E), 4.6% (FY16E), 5.2% (FY17E).
- ROAE: 12.0% (FY15E), 10.7% (FY16E), 11.4% (FY17E).
- ROAA: 7.3% (FY15E), 6.8% (FY16E), 7.6% (FY17E).
- Net Debt/Equity: 23.0% (FY15E), 15.5% (FY16E), 5.9% (FY17E).
Earnings Outlook:
- Earnings are expected to contract in 2016 due to lower average petrochemical prices.
- The company is anticipated to underperform the local downstream sector.
Market Position:
- PTTGC is considered cheap compared to its peers, but its local peers are also similarly priced.
- The company's gas-based cracker advantage is diminishing due to sticky gas costs to oil prices.

Key Information

Major Shareholders:
- PTT: 48.9%
- Thai NVDR: 9.7%
- State Street Bank Europe Limited: 2.5%
Share Price Performance:
- 1 Month: +5.8%
- 3 Months: -2.9%
- 12 Months: +0.4%
- Relative to Index: +2.3% (1M), -1.9% (3M), +8.6% (12M)
Key Ratios:
- Payout Ratio: 46.1% (FY13A), 71.1% (FY14A), 46.0% (FY15E), 46.0% (FY16E), 46.0% (FY17E).
- Net Debt/Equity: 31.8% (FY13A), 30.0% (FY14A), 23.0% (FY15E), 15.5% (FY16E), 5.9% (FY17E).
- Debt/EBITDA: 2.1 (FY13A), 3.3 (FY14A), 2.1 (FY15E), 2.0 (FY16E), 1.6 (FY17E).
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
- FY13A: THB23,673.8M
- FY14A: THB26,592.8M
- FY15E: THB21,959.5M
- FY16E: THB29,307.2M
- FY17E: THB36,303.4M

Regional Research Offices

Regional Head, Research & Economics: Sadiq CURRIMBOHY (65) 6231 5836
Regional Head of Institutional Research: WONG Chew Hann, CA (603) 2297 8686
Regional Head of Retail Research: ONG Seng Yeow (65) 6231 5839
Director of Research: TAN Sin Mui (65) 6231 5849
Chief Economist (Singapore | Malaysia): Suhaimi ILIAS (603) 2297 8682
Chief Economist (Indonesia): Juniman (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682
Head of Research (India): Jigar SHAH (91) 22 6623 2632
Head of Research (Vietnam): LE Hong Lien, ACCA (84) 844555888 × 8181
Head of Institutional Research (Thailand): Maria LAPIZ (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
Head of Retail Research (Thailand): Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090

Disclaimer

This report is for general information and not investment advice.
The opinions and recommendations are subject to change.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information.
MKE and its Representatives are not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of this report.