2021-12-01-瑞士信贷集团-菲律宾_移动领域的阻力正在减弱_数字资产开始崭露头角_42页_1mb

Philippine Telecoms Sector Summary

Core Content

The Philippine telecoms sector is undergoing a transformation driven by the easing of mobile market competition and the rise of digital assets. The report highlights the evolving landscape with a focus on mobile services, fixed broadband, and the growth of the cashless economy.

Main Points

Mobile Market Dynamics

• Competition Easing: The entry of Dito Telecommunity into the mobile market has not led to the anticipated price war. Dito's premium positioning and high capital requirements are expected to limit its aggressive market share pursuit.
• Market Share Projections: Globe is expected to maintain its leadership with a market share of ~48% by 2024E, followed by PLDT at ~44% and Dito at ~9%.
• Revenue Growth: Mobile service revenues are projected to grow at a three-year CAGR of ~8% to P263 billion by 2024E.
• Pricing Rationality: Mobile pricing is expected to remain rational due to Dito's strategy and capital constraints, supporting continued sector growth.

Fixed Broadband Growth

• Persistent Demand: Fixed broadband is expected to continue growing, driven by the need for faster and more stable internet post-pandemic.
• Penetration Forecast: Fixed wired broadband penetration is anticipated to reach ~40% by 2024E.
• Market Share Shifts: Converge is expected to gain significant market share, rising from ~16% in 2020 to ~31% by 2024E. PLDT and Globe are also expected to increase their shares, though Converge is projected to lead in fixed broadband growth.

Rise of the Cashless Economy

• Digital Innovation: The Philippines has seen a surge in digital wallet adoption, with GCash and Paymaya leading the way.
• GTV and User Growth: GCash is projected to hit ~P3.5 trillion in GTV this year, while Paymaya has ~41 million registered users and received a digital banking license.
• Valuation Insight: GCash is valued at US$4.5 billion using a 10.0x multiple on 2023E revenues, and Paymaya at US$750 million based on its latest funding round.

Key Information

Updated Ratings and Target Prices

• PLDT and Globe Upgraded: Both PLDT and Globe are upgraded to OUTPERFORM, with new target prices set at P2,250 and P4,100, respectively.
• Converge Maintained: Converge is also rated OUTPERFORM with a target price increase to P40.50.
• Market Perception: The market may not yet fully appreciate the recovery of PLDT's telecom business and the growth potential of Paymaya.

Dito's Entry and Impact

• Timeline of Entry: Dito's entry was catalyzed by government mandates and a 25-year franchise renewal. The company began commercial operations in March 2021 and is approaching 3 million subscribers.
• Technical Milestones: Dito passed its first and second technical audits, with coverage reaching ~52.75% and average broadband speeds exceeding 89 Mbps.
• Limited Competitive Impact: Factors such as high capital requirements, limited coverage, and the need to maintain a premium brand are expected to restrict Dito's ability to significantly impact pricing and market share in the short to medium term.

Mobile Plan Comparisons

• Dito's Plans: Dito offers three mobile plans: P39 for 3GB over 15 days, P99 for 10GB over 30 days, and P199 for 25GB over 30 days.
• Globe and PLDT Plans: Globe provides a wide range of plans, including GOPLUS, SURF4ALL, and GoUNLI, while PLDT offers ALLNET and ALL DATA+ plans. Both companies' plans are generally more expensive than Dito's for similar data and duration.

Capital and Strategic Considerations

• Infrastructure Costs: The rollout of towers and coverage commitments requires significant capital, which may hinder Dito's ability to compete aggressively.
• 5G Development: The continued development of 5G is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Globe and PLDT in the future.

Peer Valuations

Regional Telecom Peers

Regional Fintech and Payment Peers

Conclusion

The Philippine telecoms sector is shifting from traditional mobile competition to a more digital-driven model. With fixed broadband demand persisting and digital payment platforms like GCash and Paymaya gaining traction, the market is evolving in a way that supports long-term growth. While Dito's entry has raised concerns about competition, its premium strategy and capital constraints suggest it will not trigger a price war. Instead, the focus is on the continued growth of the digital economy and the strengthening positions of Globe and PLDT in both telecom and fintech segments.