2000年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan___Public_Expenditure_Review__Volume_3_Annexes_and_Statistical_Appendix_92页_4mb

Kazakhstan Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This document is Volume III of the Kazakhstan Public Expenditure Review (PER), which was prepared at the request of the Government of Kazakhstan. It is part of a broader capacity-building initiative aimed at enabling the government to independently manage public finances through regular and systematic reviews. The report is structured into three volumes, with this one focusing on annexes and statistical appendices.

The review highlights Kazakhstan's progress in transitioning to a market-oriented economy and implementing public sector reforms. It identifies key public expenditure issues and suggests strategies and policy reforms to address them, with a focus on fiscal sustainability and economic recovery.

Main Issues and Recommendations

Key Public Expenditure Issues

• Persistent fiscal imbalance: Despite reforms, underlying fiscal imbalances remain.
• Deficient domestic resource mobilization: The management of domestic resources, particularly oil/gas rents, is inadequate.
• Lack of expenditure prioritization mechanisms: There are no reliable mechanisms to prioritize spending based on outcomes and performance.
• Inefficient budget execution: Weak audit systems and lack of performance evaluation hinder effective budget implementation.
• Poor intergovernmental fiscal relations: There is a lack of clear mechanisms for fiscal transfers and coordination.
• Inefficient public service delivery: Services in health, education, and social assistance are not effectively delivered.
• Large regional disparities: Per capita social expenditures vary significantly across regions.

Policy Recommendations

• Rationalize domestic resource mobilization: Focus on preserving domestic savings, capital accumulation, and non-oil sector development.
• Prioritize government programs: Concentrate efforts on areas of market failure and equity, using output/outcome-based prioritization, multiyear budgeting, and performance evaluation.
• Strengthen intergovernmental relations: Improve central coordination of fiscal decentralization, increase local autonomy and accountability, and reform tax sharing and transfer mechanisms.
• Enhance spending efficiency and service delivery: Focus social assistance on the poor, restructure service facilities, and create conditions for private sector participation.

Key Reforms and Progress

Economic Liberalization

• Prices and exchange rates: Price liberalization was completed by the mid-1990s, and the exchange rate was allowed to float in 1999.
• Trade regime: Quantitative restrictions were eliminated, and the average weighted tariff was reduced to about 9% by 1998. However, the 1998 balance of payments crisis led to a real appreciation of the Tenge and a setback in trade liberalization.
• Financial sector: A two-tier banking system was replaced, and the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) played a key role in reforming the financial sector. New measures were introduced to liberalize the financial system, including increasing foreign ownership limits and restructuring pension funds.

Fiscal System Reforms

• Tax system: A modern Tax Code was adopted in 1995, and VAT was implemented in the same year. The Ministry of State Revenue was established in 1998 to coordinate revenue collection.
• Budget system: The budget formulation process was restructured, including the creation of a Budget Department, adoption of a new Budget System Law, and establishment of a formal State Budget Commission.
• Public investment: A three-year Public Investment Program was initiated in 1998 to focus on strategic areas.
• Extra-budgetary funds: These were eliminated in 1999 and incorporated into the regular budget.
• Accounting standards: The country adopted internationally accepted accounting practices (IAAP) and established an Accounting Commission.

Governance and Public Administration

• Rule of law and transparency: Significant improvements were made in governance, including the promotion of transparency and reduction of bureaucracy.
• Civil service reforms: A census was conducted in 1998, leading to a 16% reduction in the number of civil servants in the central administration. The Agency for Civil Service Reforms is working on amendments to the Law on Civil Service to improve career management and accountability.
• Public administration restructuring: Many state entities were transformed into state or private enterprises, reducing the size of the public sector and improving efficiency.

Economic Context

Economic Performance

• The economy experienced dramatic contraction between 1990 and 1995, with real GDP falling by about 50% and unemployment rising to 12%.
• Stabilization and liberalization policies introduced in 1994 led to positive economic recovery, with GDP growth becoming positive in 1996 and inflation decreasing to single digits in 1998.
• However, the economy remained vulnerable to external shocks, particularly due to its heavy reliance on oil and gas exports.

Structural Changes

• The real economy has undergone significant restructuring, leading to a decline in non-oil sectors and a rise in extractive industries.
• The informal sector has grown, estimated to be about one-fourth of formal GDP, and may pose challenges to public expenditure management.

Balance of Payments and Foreign Debt

• Oil exports have become a major component of the balance of payments, increasing from 19% of total exports in 1994 to 34% in 1999.
• Despite the importance of oil, the resource balance has deteriorated, from -0.7% of GDP in 1996 to -4.5% in 1998.
• The fiscal deficit remained high, mainly financed by privatization and external borrowing, leading to an increase in the external debt/GDP ratio from 21% in 1995-96 to about 50% by 2000.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of continued reform and capacity building to ensure fiscal sustainability and economic development in Kazakhstan. It emphasizes the need for efficient public spending, sound fiscal management, and inclusive governance to address the challenges posed by the country's transition to a market economy and its reliance on extractive industries.