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Equity Research Summary: European Midcaps - June 5, 2025

This report analyzes the European midcap equity market, focusing on battery-electric vehicle (BEV) trends, costs, policy changes, and company valuations, particularly for Alfen N.V. and Fastned BV.

Market Data and Growth

• BEV registrations in the European Union's 16 largest markets (covering approximately 95% of the market) increased by 27% year-over-year in May 2025, reaching about 187,000 vehicles.
• Overall car market growth was modest, rising by 2% year-over-year, while BEV penetration reached 18.5%, up from 14.8% in May 2024.
• Year-to-date, BEV registrations are up 28%, with BEV penetration at 18.0%—400 basis points higher than in May 2024, in a stable car market setting.
• Rolling 12-month growth rates for new BEVs show strong adoption, with factors including falling battery prices and stricter CO2 regulations.

Cost Analysis

• Charging costs for BEVs were compared to petrol refueling. Home charging remains cheaper, but fast charging costs are now similar to petrol after recent price adjustments.
• Charts indicate that while home charging is cost-effective, costs may rise due to infrastructure developments.

Policy and Regulatory Changes

• The EU eased CO2 emission targets for car manufacturers to allow greater flexibility in compliance, shifting from strict annual targets to an average over FY25E-FY27E. This accommodates stricter regulations from 95 grams of CO2/km (current targets down to 93.6 grams for FY25E-FY29E).
• In the UK, new BEVs face a tax of £10 in the first year from April 2025, increasing to £195 per year starting from the second year. Previously, such EVs had no tax, which may delay adoption.
• Across Europe, similar policy shifts include hybrid sales extensions and tax increases to offset CO2 compliance.

Company Valuations

• Alfen N.V.: The stock is rated HOLD with a €12.0 price target. Valuation assumes 7% annual revenue growth beyond FY25E and a 9.5% WACC. Key risks include slowed EV adoption, falling battery prices, and lower EBITDA margins, valued at 10.0x FY25E EV/EBITDA—a 60% discount to historical levels.
• Fastned BV: Rated BUY with a €30.0 price target. Based on 41% revenue growth CAGR, 40.0% EBITDA margin, and a 12.5% WACC. Major risks include high execution pressure from rapid expansion, competition from BP and Shell, and funding needs in rising interest rates.

Risks and Recommendations

General risks include slowed EV adoption, economic uncertainty, and volatile electricity prices. Buy ratings recommend aggressive growth in BEV infrastructure, while hold/dismissals caution on valuation gaps or execution challenges.
Additional disclosures cover equity research methodologies, analyst certifications, and potential conflicts of interest, which are detailed in the full report's pages 2-7.

For further details, refer to the complete report.