卡内基国际和平基金会-Prospects-for-Unfreezing-Moldovas-Frozen-Conflict-in-Transnistria_14页_176kb

Summary of PROSPECTS FOR UNFREEZING MOLDOVA'S FROZEN CONFLICT IN TRANSNISTRIA

Core Content

The document outlines the ongoing Transnistria conflict, which has remained unresolved since 1992, and evaluates the prospects for its resolution. It highlights the complex interplay of historical, geopolitical, economic, and cultural factors that continue to sustain the division between Moldova and Transnistria. The conflict, though non-violent, remains a significant obstacle to Moldova's European integration and regional stability.

Main Points

The Transnistria Conflict Overview

• Location and Status: Transnistria is a 400 km long, narrow strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine, internationally recognized as part of Moldova but de facto independent.
• Historical Context: The conflict began during the Soviet Union's dissolution, fueled by fears among Russian-speaking residents of losing economic and linguistic privileges if Moldova united with Romania.
• Ceasefire and Military Presence: The 1992 ceasefire, mediated by Russia, remains in place, with Russian troops still stationed in the region. These troops serve as a symbolic and strategic foothold for Russia.
• Economic and Security Tensions: The region has developed into a hub for illegal trade and remains economically dependent on Russia, despite its de facto autonomy.

Key Stakeholders and Their Interests

Challenges to Conflict Resolution

• Persistent Tensions: The conflict remains unresolved due to deep-rooted fears and historical narratives, especially among Russian-speaking populations.
• Economic Interests: Private interests, including Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs, benefit from the current status quo, which allows them to control industries and manipulate gas and trade flows.
• Demographic Shifts: A new generation of Moldovans and Transnistrians has grown up in separation, making it harder to envision a unified future.
• Geopolitical Dynamics: Russia's strategic interests in maintaining influence over the region, and Moldova's increasing alignment with the West, create a delicate balance.

Recent Developments and Opportunities

• Political Will: There are signs of renewed interest in resolving the conflict, with Russia hosting a 5+2 meeting in June 2011 and EU and US engagement in security dialogues.
• EU's Role: The EU is seen as a key actor in promoting Moldova's reform agenda and ensuring that European integration does not leave Transnistria behind.
• Security Dialogue: The international community, particularly the OSCE, is urged to promote a broader Euro-Atlantic security framework that includes all relevant parties and addresses shared concerns.

Key Information

• The conflict has been managed through the OSCE 5+2 process, which includes Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine, and the OSCE, with the US and EU as observers.
• The Kozak plan in 2003 was the closest attempt at a framework agreement, but was rejected by Moldova.
• Transnistria's economy benefits from Russian subsidies and a gray market for smuggling and trade, which is facilitated by its de facto autonomy.
• Russian citizenship is highly valued in Transnistria due to economic and social benefits, including access to Russian pensions and employment.
• Moldova's government, led by the Alliance for European Integration (AEI), is committed to European integration but has not yet initiated formal negotiations.
• The risk of renewed hostilities is real, especially if the political environment deteriorates or if the status quo is not re-evaluated.

Conclusion

The document argues that while the Transnistria conflict remains a significant challenge, the current political climate offers a window of opportunity for resolution. The key to progress lies in the political will of all stakeholders, the involvement of the international community, and the creation of a more inclusive and cooperative security framework. The OSCE and Euro-Atlantic dialogue are seen as essential tools in this process.