卡内基国际和平基金会-Hizbollahs-Outlook-in-the-Current-Conflict_4页_121kb

Hizbollah's Outlook in the Current Conflict Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Hizbollah's motives, strategies, and objectives during the 2006 conflict with Israel, authored by Amal Saad-Ghorayeb. It outlines Hizbollah's perspective on the conflict, emphasizing its defensive nature and the broader geopolitical implications.

Main Viewpoints

1. Motives and Expectations

• Hizbollah's July 12 ambush of an Israeli convoy was not a radical shift in strategy but a continuation of its long-standing pattern of abductions aimed at securing prisoner exchanges.
• The party believed the attack would prompt a limited Israeli response, not a full-scale military operation.
• Hizbollah's leadership, including Mahmoud Qomati and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, acknowledged that they anticipated a significant Israeli reaction but were not prepared for its scale and intensity.

2. Perception of Israel and the United States

• Hizbollah views Israel as an "obedient tool" of U.S. policy, particularly in its current military actions.
• It perceives the United States as the primary architect of the conflict, driven by its "New Middle East" initiative and the desire to promote "freedom" and "democracy" at the expense of regional actors like Hizbollah, Syria, Iran, and Hamas.
• The U.S. refusal to accept a cease-fire or to meet Hizbollah's demands is interpreted as a deliberate effort to prolong the conflict and reshape the political landscape of the region.

3. Military Objectives

• Hizbollah's military goals are not centered on territorial gains or defeating Israel in a conventional sense, but on achieving symbolic victories.
• These include:
  • Denying Israel any tangible military success.
  • Preventing the unconditional release of the two captured Israeli soldiers.
  • Avoiding the dismantlement or weakening of Hizbollah's resistance capabilities.
  • Preventing the Israeli military from pushing Hizbollah back to the Litani River.
• The asymmetrical nature of the conflict—where Israel's overwhelming military power contrasts with Hizbollah's guerrilla tactics—has allowed the latter to frame its survival as a victory.

4. Political Objectives

• Hizbollah aims to resist U.S. influence and oppose the "New Middle East" agenda, which it sees as imperialistic.
• The conflict is framed as a regional struggle, not just a Lebanese issue, and its outcome is believed to impact the broader Arab and Islamic world.
• Hizbollah seeks to preserve Lebanon's identity and resist the transformation of the country into an "American-Zionist" state.
• The party's actions are also intended to challenge the perception of Israeli military invincibility and affirm the legitimacy of resistance against occupation.

Key Information

• Hizbollah's strategy includes both immediate and long-term goals, with the former focused on survival and the latter on reshaping the regional order.
• The conflict has been a platform for Hizbollah to assert its regional significance and to rally support among Arab and Islamic populations.
• The document highlights the complex interplay between Hizbollah, Israel, and the United States, with Hizbollah positioning itself as a key player in the geopolitical landscape.
• Hizbollah's leadership believes that the conflict's outcome will have far-reaching consequences, not only for Lebanon but for the entire Middle East.

Conclusion

Hizbollah's outlook on the 2006 conflict with Israel is characterized by a blend of defensive military objectives and political resistance against U.S. hegemony. The movement perceives itself as a victim of a broader regional struggle, where its actions are both a response to and a challenge against external pressures. This perspective underscores the importance of understanding Hizbollah's strategic depth and its role in shaping the dynamics of the Middle East.