2012年-世界发展银行全球_Identifying_Investment_Opportunities_for_Ruminant_Livestock_Feeding_in_Developing_Countries_181页_3mb

Summary of "Identifying Investment Opportunities for Ruminant Livestock Feeding in Developing Countries"

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of investment opportunities for ruminant livestock feeding in developing countries, emphasizing the importance of feed resources in enhancing productivity and livelihoods. It outlines a step-by-step analytical framework to identify priority areas and interventions, considering both technical and institutional aspects of feed-related investments.

The livestock sector contributes about 40% of agricultural GDP and supports the livelihoods of around one billion people. The sector is undergoing rapid transformation due to several key drivers, including population growth, urbanization, increased incomes, and stricter food safety standards. These trends are expected to continue over the next decades, particularly in Asia and Africa.

Main Views

1. Demand Trends and Sector Dynamics

• Increasing demand for livestock products is driven by population growth and rising incomes in developing countries, with a growth rate three times higher than in developed countries.
• Non-ruminant sectors (pigs and poultry) are growing faster than ruminant sectors (cattle, sheep, goats), due to their susceptibility to economies of scale and easier technology transfer.
• Ruminant systems are more dependent on local conditions and are less susceptible to economies of scale, making them more challenging to improve.

2. Feed Resource Constraints and Opportunities

• Feed resources are a critical factor in the productivity of ruminant livestock.
• Feed residues (straw, stover) remain a significant component of ruminant diets, though their use is projected to decline.
• Crop by-products and concentrates are expected to increase in usage, especially in South Asian dairy systems, where they could reach 25% of the total diet by 2030.
• Forage production is likely to expand, particularly in dairy systems, to meet rising demand.

3. Priority Regions and Value Chains

• Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are identified as the two priority regions for feed-related investments.
• Within these regions, the following value chains are highlighted for their potential to benefit poor producers and consumers:
  • Dairy in East Africa and South Asia
  • Beef in West Africa
  • Small ruminant meat in West and Southern Africa

4. Investment Strategies

• Technological improvements include:
  • Enhanced research and development for feed/food crops.
  • Better ration formulation through feed processing and storage technologies.
  • Forage seed production.
• Institutional support is critical and includes:
  • Access to land and water for smallholders.
  • Governance of feed quality.
  • Reduction of transaction costs.
  • Development of Business Development Services (BDS) to support smallholders in accessing feed, markets, and services.
• Policy considerations involve:
  • Protection against dumping of meat and milk from OECD countries.
  • Reduction of regional tariff barriers, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Investment in infrastructure to support feed and livestock production.

Key Information

• Feed utilization efficiency is a major factor in increasing income and productivity for smallholder producers.
• Economic returns are higher when investments are made in a fast trajectory (early transformation) compared to a slow trajectory.
• The analytical framework developed in this report can be applied to other livestock systems and provides a basis for further research and policy development.
• Incentive systems such as payment for environmental services can also help increase efficiency in livestock production.

Investment Opportunities

• East Africa and South Asia dairy systems: focus on improving feed quality, increasing use of crop by-products and concentrates, and enhancing market access.
• West Africa beef systems: emphasize improving feed sources and reducing transaction costs.
• West and Southern Africa small ruminant meat systems: highlight the need for better feed availability and access, as well as institutional support for market engagement.

Conclusion

The report concludes that feed-related investments are essential for the sustainability and productivity of ruminant livestock systems in developing countries. These investments should be tailored to local contexts, combining technological, institutional, and policy approaches. The step-by-step framework presented is a valuable tool for identifying and prioritizing feed-related interventions that can enhance livelihoods and support the growth of livestock-based economies.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 2.1: Human population trends in 2000 and 2030 for global and regional systems.
• Table 2.2: Livestock population projections for 2000 and 2030.
• Table 3.1: Priority value chains for pro-poor impact.
• Table 4.1: Analytical framework for assessing feed resources and interventions.
• Table 5.1: Dairy value-chain in East Africa and South Asia.
• Table 6.1-6.4: Feed use and investment opportunities in South Asian dairy systems.
• Table 7.1-7.5: Feed-related investment opportunities in West African beef systems.
• Table 8.1-8.4: Feed-related investment opportunities in West African small ruminant systems.
• Table 9.1-9.4: Feed-related investment opportunities in Southern African small ruminant systems.
• Table 10.1-10.13: Scenarios and investment rankings for different livestock systems.
• Figure 2.1: Projected changes in demand for livestock products from 2001 to 2030.
• Figure 4.1: Interacting factors affecting feed resources in crop-livestock systems.
• Figure 4.2: Application of the framework to South Asian rain-fed dairy systems.
• Figure 8.1: Livestock demographic trends in Niger.

Step-by-Step Investment Framework

1. Identify systems where feed-related strategies are likely to have significant impacts.
2. Select priority regions and value chains based on growth potential, pro-poor impact, and supply constraints.
3. Classify feed types and sources (e.g., natural grazing, planted forages, crop residues, market-based sources).
4. Assess future trends using models and expert opinions.
5. Evaluate scenarios to quantify returns and interpret opportunities and constraints.
6. Disseminate investment priorities through appropriate mechanisms.

This structured approach ensures that investments are targeted effectively and efficiently, contributing to the long-term sustainability and profitability of smallholder ruminant livestock systems.