2016年-世界发展银行全球_Lebanon_Economic_Monitor_Spring_2016___A_Geo-Economy_of_Risks_and_Reward_66页_3mb

Lebanon Economic Monitor Summary - Spring 2016

Core Content

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an analysis of key economic developments and policy changes in Lebanon over the past six months, placing them in a global and long-term context. It assesses the implications of these developments on the country's economic outlook, covering macroeconomic performance, financial markets, and human welfare indicators. The report also includes two special focuses: one on industrial parks and special economic zones (SEZs), and another on the tech startup ecosystem in Lebanon.

Main Points

• Economic Challenges: Lebanon faces significant economic risks due to its position at the intersection of regional fault lines and its reliance on capital inflows. The country is the largest host of Syrian refugees, which puts pressure on public finances and creates dependency on diaspora remittances.
• Political Instability: The political process remains paralyzed, with the vacant presidency entering its second year and no near-term resolution in sight. The parliament has also failed to agree on a new election law, further complicating governance.
• Security and Tourism: Despite improved security since 2015, the tourism sector has not fully recovered to pre-crisis levels. However, it showed a rebound with a 12% increase in tourist arrivals in 2015 compared to 4.1% in 2014.
• Real Estate and Construction: The real estate sector regressed in 2015, with construction permits and cement deliveries declining by 8.9% and 8.6%, respectively. This is in contrast to a 4.8% expansion and 5.4% contraction in the same periods in 2014.
• Fiscal and External Sector: The fiscal deficit widened by 0.7 percentage points of GDP in 2015, while the primary surplus shrank by 1.2 percentage points. The current account deficit narrowed by 3.5 percentage points due to lower imports, but this was offset by reduced capital inflows. Foreign exchange reserves at the Banque du Liban fell by 5.4% to $30.6 billion.
• Inflation and Growth: Inflation reached a historical low in 2015, but price deflation (3.7%) held back nominal GDP growth and increased the debt-to-GDP ratio by 3.1 percentage points to 148.7%.
• Private Consumption: Private consumption and the external sector were key drivers of growth in 2015. The consumer confidence index showed a 12.8% increase in the three-month moving average, though it remained volatile.
• Tech and Industrial Sectors: The report highlights the potential of industrial zones and tech startups to boost investment and employment. Industrial zones can offer specialized infrastructure and regulatory benefits, while the tech startup ecosystem is supported by ICT advancements and innovative financial initiatives.

Key Information

Economic Overview

• Real GDP Growth: 1.5% in 2015, down from 2% forecast in fall 2015.
• Tourism: 12% increase in tourist arrivals in 2015, but still below pre-crisis levels.
• Real Estate: Suffered a contraction of 8.6% in cement deliveries and 8.9% in construction permits.
• Fiscal Deficit: Widened by 0.7% of GDP to 11.6% in 2015.
• Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Increased by 3.1 percentage points to 148.7%.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: Declined by 5.4% to $30.6 billion.

Special Focus: Industrial Parks and SEZs

• Potential for Growth: Industrial zones and SEZs can enhance competitiveness and attract investment.
• Benefits: Specialized infrastructure, regulatory facilitation, and trade regimes.
• Challenges: Lebanon needs to treat land as a strategic resource, select sites carefully, and establish collaboration with the private sector.
• Recommendations:
  • Avoid reliance on excessive fiscal incentives.
  • Go beyond basic infrastructure.
  • Consider policy experimentation.
  • Avoid proliferation and ensure coordination.

Special Focus: Tech Startup Ecosystem

• ICT Impact: ICT has reduced innovation and market access costs, enabling small entrepreneurs to compete with established businesses.
• Growth in Tech Sector: Internet penetration increased from 52% in 2011 to 74.7% in 2014, and fixed broadband subscriptions nearly tripled to over 1.1 million.
• Support for Startups: The central bank has introduced initiatives to facilitate venture capital financing.
• Entrepreneur Ecosystem: The report emphasizes the need for a supportive environment, including networking, funding, and innovation.
• Recommendations:
  • Improve the quality of business education.
  • Provide rapid tech skills training.
  • Encourage municipal involvement in fostering entrepreneurship.
  • Support policy experimentation and innovation.

Conclusion

The economic outlook for Lebanon remains subdued due to the ongoing Syrian conflict, political impasse, and the negative effects of falling oil prices. While the tourism and tech sectors show some promise, the overall growth is expected to remain modest at 1.8% in 2016, with a medium-term projection of 2.5% growth. A resolution of the Syrian conflict and political improvements are critical for long-term economic recovery. Spatial industrial policies and a thriving tech startup ecosystem are identified as potential tools to drive growth and employment.