2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Quota_Formula_33页_900kb

IMF Quota Formula - Data Update and Further Considerations Summary

Core Content

This document is an IMF policy paper discussing the implications of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6), on the quota formula and related indicators such as openness and variability. It also includes a preliminary analysis of OECD-WTO data on value added trade.

Main Changes due to BPM6

• Goods for Processing (GFP): Under BPM6, only the processing fees are recorded under services, whereas under BPM5, the full value of goods was included in goods imports and exports. This change reduces double counting in gross trade flows.
• Data Conversion: The Statistics Department (STA) has developed bridging tables to convert BPM5 data to BPM6 for countries that have not yet fully transitioned, ensuring comparability over time.
• Impact on Quota Variables: The change in the treatment of GFP affects both openness and variability. The average reduction in openness for countries reporting on a BPM6 basis is 2.5 percent, with some countries experiencing reductions over 5 percent.
• Methodological Adjustments: Other changes in BPM6, such as the treatment of merchanting transactions and capital account credits and debits, have a smaller impact on quota variables.
• Country-Specific Impacts: Some countries, particularly those with significant GFP trade (e.g., Costa Rica, Honduras, Philippines), experience more pronounced changes in their openness and variability shares.

Impact on Openness and Variability

• Openness Reduction: The average openness reduction for 70 countries reporting on a BPM6 basis is 2.5 percent, with some countries like Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Philippines seeing over 13 percent and 23.6 percent reductions, respectively.
• Variability Reduction: The variability shares for countries affected by BPM6 changes also decrease, with the top five countries experiencing reductions ranging from 10.6 percent to 27.1 percent.
• G7 Countries: For the G7 countries, the impact of BPM6 on openness and variability is relatively small, below 3 percent for both.
• BPM6 Reporters: Countries that report under BPM6 and provide GFP data show a minimal impact on their openness variables, with an average decline of less than 1 percent.

OECD-WTO Value Added Trade Data

• Overview: The OECD-WTO Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database provides estimates of value added exports and imports for 54 countries, based on national input-output tables and certain assumptions.
• Coverage: The database covers all OECD countries and 20 Emerging Market and Developing Countries (EMDCs), including major economies like China, India, and Brazil.
• Value Added Export (VAX) Ratios: These ratios vary across countries, with an average of 0.71 for the 54 countries in the sample. They range from 0.41 percent in Luxembourg to 0.97 for Saudi Arabia.
• Value Added Import (VAM) Ratios: VAM ratios are more homogenous than VAX ratios. This is due to the nature of imports being more diversified and similar across countries.
• Limitations: The OECD-WTO dataset is based on stringent assumptions, such as the proportionality assumption and the production assumption, which may lead to a downward bias in estimates and underestimation of offshoring effects.
• Data Availability: The dataset does not cover all components of the current account, such as investment income, and there are discrepancies between the trade data used in the OECD-WTO estimates and those reported to the IFS for quota calculations.

Key Information

• Countries Reporting on BPM6: As of January 31, 2013, 20 countries were reporting on a BPM6 basis, with some countries (marked with *) lacking basic information to identify goods for processing.
• Data Sources: The analysis includes data from the IMF Statistics Department and the OECD-WTO database.
• Data Adjustments: For countries reporting under BPM5 and reporting GFP, adjustments are made to their current receipts and payments to align with BPM6 methodology.
• Financial Contributions: Annexes also provide data on financial contributions to the Fund, with selected indicators presented in SDR millions and percentages.

Summary of Findings

• The transition to BPM6 has a notable impact on the openness and variability shares of countries with significant GFP trade.
• The OECD-WTO TiVA database offers valuable insights into value added trade, though its coverage is limited and based on assumptions that may affect the accuracy of estimates.
• The data conversion and bridging efforts by the IMF aim to ensure consistency and comparability across different reporting standards.
• The effects of BPM6 are more pronounced in certain regions and countries, highlighting the need for further analysis and adjustments.