2009年-世界发展银行全球_Crisis_in_LAC___Infrastructure_Investment_and_the_Potential_for_Employment_Generation_7页_791kb

报告摘要

CRISIS IN LAC: INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EMPLOYMENT GENERATION

Core Content

This document analyzes the potential of infrastructure investment to generate employment in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) during the financial crisis. It estimates the direct, indirect, and induced employment effects of various infrastructure projects and highlights the challenges and risks associated with implementing these investments effectively.

Main Findings

Stimulus Packages in LAC: As of February 2009, major economies in LAC have announced stimulus packages, with public works comprising the majority of these investments. The total estimated public works investment for the region in 2009 is around US$25 billion, which is 20% above the original budget allocations.
Employment Generation Potential:
- Direct and Indirect Employment: A prototypical mix of infrastructure investments in LAC could generate approximately 40,000 direct and indirect jobs per US$1 billion spent.
- Induced Employment: With a multiplier of 2.0, this could lead to 2 million jobs for the US$25 billion stimulus investment.
- Unemployment Impact: This would represent about 7% of the region's estimated unemployed population in 2009.
Rural Road Maintenance: This type of project may generate 200,000 to 500,000 direct jobs per US$1 billion, due to its high labor intensity and low reliance on imported materials.
Sensitivity to Variables:
- Employment generation is highly sensitive to local wages, division between skilled and unskilled labor, sectoral mix, technology used, and import levels.
- Substitution effects can reduce the employment impact in areas with tight labor markets.

Key Infrastructure Sectors and Employment Estimates

Sector	Country	Sub-sector	Domestic Inputs	Foreign Inputs	Annual Direct Employment (per US$1B)
Transport	Colombia	Access to neighborhoods (streets)	49%	16%	22,500
Transport	Colombia	Feeder routes for Transmilenio	27%	23%	35,833
Transport	Brazil	Roads	22%	63%	16,577
Transport	Argentina	Highways	60%	38%	1,650
Water and Sanitation	Honduras	Improvement on water capitation	40%	20%	43,333
Water and Sanitation	Honduras	Rehabilitation of water networks	40%	10%	58,333
Water and Sanitation	Honduras	Expansion of water networks	40%	10%	66,667
Water and Sanitation	Honduras	New treatment plant	80%	0%	25,000
Water and Sanitation	Colombia	Expansion of WSS networks	32%	4%	100,000
Water and Sanitation	Brazil	Rain Drainage networks	48%	28%	34,001
Water and Sanitation	Brazil	Sewerage	68%	17%	21,746
Energy	US	Solar PV	95%-97%	-	2,700
Energy	US	Wind Power	94%-96%	-	3,400
Energy	US	Biomass	98%-99%	-	700
Energy	US	Coal-fired	98%-99%	-	750
Energy	US	Natural gas-fired	96%-98%	-	1,700
Energy	Brazil	Hydropower	90%-95%	-	4,500
Energy	Peru	Rural Electrification	26%	53%	23,000

Risks and Challenges

Sorting and Planning Contradictions: Infrastructure projects may have complementarities or substitution effects, leading to conflicting objectives (e.g., road vs. rail, gas vs. electricity).
Delayed Implementation and Impact: The preparation of large projects can take 1 to 3 years, and delays in disbursement can reduce the effectiveness of stimulus.
Affordability: The fiscal space available to governments determines the scope and scale of stimulus packages. It is heterogeneous across LAC countries.
Corruption Risks: In crisis environments, shortcuts in procurement processes (e.g., bypassing competitive bidding) may increase the risk of corruption and public distrust.

Recommendations

Sector-Level Analysis: Policymakers should conduct sector-specific analyses to understand the employment and economic impacts of different infrastructure types.
Technology Comparison: Evaluating the impact of different technologies is crucial for maximizing employment benefits.
Input Sourcing: Data on domestic and foreign input sourcing should be considered to assess the employment multiplier.
Robust Planning and Procurement: Governments should strengthen planning processes and ensure robust procurement systems to mitigate risks and ensure efficiency.
Long-Term Vision: Short-term infrastructure investment should align with long-term growth and poverty alleviation goals.

Conclusion

Infrastructure investment is a key component of LAC's stimulus response to the financial crisis, with significant potential to generate employment. However, the effectiveness of these investments depends on sectoral mix, technology, wages, and input sourcing. While rural road maintenance projects offer high direct employment potential, the broader stimulus package must also consider long-term sustainability, fiscal constraints, and corruption risks to ensure successful implementation and impact.

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