2022-06-29-联合国贸易发展委员会-2022年世界投资报告（EN）_244页_5mb

World Investment Report 2022 Summary

Core Content

The World Investment Report 2022 examines the interplay between international tax reforms and sustainable investment. It highlights how global investment trends and policies are evolving in response to major global challenges, including the Ukraine war, the ongoing pandemic, and climate change. The report emphasizes the importance of aligning tax policies with sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the need for reform to ensure fair taxation of multinational enterprises (MNEs).

Main Points

Global Investment Trends and Prospects

• FDI Recovery: Global FDI flows rebounded to $1.58 trillion in 2021, a 64% increase from 2020. This recovery was driven by M&A activity and project finance due to loose financing conditions and infrastructure stimulus.
• 2022 Outlook: The global FDI environment is deteriorating, with the Ukraine war contributing to a triple food, fuel, and finance crisis. FDI is expected to decline or stagnate in 2022.
• Regional Growth:
  • Developed Countries: Accounted for 70% of the global FDI increase, with flows reaching $746 billion.
  • Developing Countries: FDI flows increased by 30%, but remained flat at $259 billion in 2022.
  • Africa: FDI flows reached $83 billion, up from $39 billion in 2020, but greenfield investments remained low.
  • Developing Asia: FDI reached an all-time high of $619 billion, driven by Asia's economic performance.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: FDI rose by 56%, but remained 15% below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Structurally Weak Economies: FDI increased by 15%, but still represented only 2.5% of global flows in 2021.
• Sectoral Trends:
  • SDG Investment: Grew by 70%, with renewable energy being the main driver.
  • Climate Change Investment: Over 60% is directed towards mitigation, with only 5% to adaptation.
  • Digital MNEs: Showed five times faster sales growth than traditional MNEs over the past five years.
  • SMEs: FDI is in decline, with their share in greenfield investments dropping from 5.7% to 1.3%.

Policy Developments

National Investment Policies

• Developed Countries: Increased measures to protect strategic sectors from foreign takeovers, with 42% of measures being less favorable to investment.
• Developing Countries: Continued to adopt investment facilitation and incentive measures, with 40% of all measures being investment facilitation.

International Investment Policies

• IIAs: The number of terminated IIAs exceeded newly concluded ones, with the total number of IIAs reaching 3,288.
• ISDS Cases: Reached 1,190 by the end of 2021, with most cases under old-generation IIAs.
• Megaregional Agreements: New-generation agreements and the termination of old BITs are reshaping the international investment agreement (IIA) landscape.

Taxation of Investment

• Tax Incentives: Widely used to attract investment, with profit-based incentives like tax holidays and reduced CIT being common.
• Tax Discretion: Over 70% of tax incentives are based on discretion, not transparent criteria.
• Time-Bound Incentives: Only half of tax incentives over the past decade were time-bound, with lower shares in Africa (35%) and Asia (40%).
• Tax Competition: Pillar II of the BEPS project aims to reduce tax competition and discourage profit shifting to low-tax jurisdictions.

Impact of Global Minimum Tax on FDI

• Pillar II: A 15% minimum tax on the foreign profits of the largest MNEs, proposed under the G20/OECD BEPS project, is expected to:
  • Discourage profit shifting.
  • Stabilize international tax rules.
  • Reduce tax uncertainty.
  • Prevent the proliferation of unilateral tax measures.
• Impact on FDI: Higher taxes may reduce FDI, but could also increase tax revenues in developing countries, supporting SDG financing.
• Tax Incentives and ETRs: The report suggests that tax incentives may become less effective as a result of Pillar II, and reforms are needed to align with new tax rules.

Sustainable Finance and Capital Markets

• Sustainable Investment Products: Include sustainable funds and sustainable bonds, which are gaining traction.
• Institutional Investors: Increasingly investing in sustainable projects, especially in renewable energy.
• Stock Exchanges: Playing a key role in climate action, with gender equality and market infrastructure being important considerations.
• Regulatory Standards: ESG and climate-related disclosures are becoming more prominent, with international standards being developed to support sustainable finance.

Key Challenges

• Tax Complexity: Developing countries face technical capacity constraints in adapting to new tax rules.
• Investment Treaty Commitments: May hinder fiscal policy action.
• Debt and Fiscal Space: Rising debt levels and unsustainable borrowing costs are limiting fiscal flexibility.
• SDG Financing Gap: Estimated at $4.3 trillion annually, with $1.2 trillion specifically for social protection in developing countries.

Strategic Implications

• Tax Competition: Will decrease due to global minimum tax.
• Investment Promotion: Needs to reorient from costly incentives to sustainable and transparent approaches.
• Multilateral Support: Required to assist developing countries in adapting to new tax rules and reining in illicit financial flows.

Conclusion

The World Investment Report 2022 underscores the importance of international tax reforms in shaping sustainable investment. It calls for policy coordination, technical support, and multilateral cooperation to ensure equitable and sustainable development. The report serves as a guide for policymakers to navigate the new tax landscape and adjust investment strategies accordingly.