2018年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Key_Findings_of_the_ECRI_Statistical_Package_2017_11页_598kb

ECRI Statistical Package 2017 Summary: Lending to European Households and Non-Financial Institutions

Core Content

The ECRI Statistical Package 2017 provides comprehensive data on credit markets in Europe from 1995 to 2016, focusing on credit extended by monetary financial institutions (MFIs) to households and non-financial corporations (NFCs). The dataset includes 42 countries, covering the EU28, EFTA states, emerging economies, and others like the US, Canada, Japan, and Australia. It breaks down credit volumes and growth rates by sector and type, offering insights into the evolution of credit markets across Europe.

Main Findings

• Total Outstanding Credit in 2016:
  Total credit to households and NFCs in the EU28 increased by 0.7% compared to 2015.

  • Private credit to households has entered a stable growth phase for the second consecutive year, indicating recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Consumer credit showed the strongest annual growth, while housing loans grew more slowly but steadily.
  • New Member States (NMS), which joined the EU after 2004, had a housing loan growth 2.5 times higher than the EU28 as a whole.

• Credit to NFCs:

  • Credit to NFCs has been in contraction for 8 consecutive years, with a -0.45% annual growth rate in the EU28 and -0.97% in the Euro Area 19 (EA19).
  • The cumulative contraction in real terms in the EU28 is over 19.1%, while for households it peaked at -4.08% between 2009 and 2014.
  • The PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) continue to show negative growth rates across all credit types, with the exception of Italy.

• GDP Growth and Credit Recovery:

  • Europe's GDP grew by 2.6% in 2016, marking the fourth consecutive year of growth.
  • The NMS saw real GDP growth of 4% in 2016, indicating stronger economic performance.
  • The correlation between credit and GDP growth suggests that credit markets are demand-driven in the recovery process.

Key Trends and Analysis

Private Credit Markets

• Household lending constitutes 62.8% of total lending in the EU28, with consumer credit growing by 3.13% in real terms in 2016.
• Consumer credit has not yet reached pre-crisis levels, but it has started to recover after a -20.2% contraction in 2014.
• Housing loans make up 78.1% of total private credit in the EA and 49.1% of total credit to households and NFCs.
• NMS show stronger growth in housing loans, with a 4.3% annual increase in 2016, compared to 1.7% in the EU28.
• Slovakia experienced the highest increase in housing loans (117.3%) since 2008, while Latvia saw the lowest (37.7%).
• Cyprus has a high credit-to-disposable income ratio (229.5%) and experienced a 13.2% decrease in 2016 due to weak creditworthiness and loan restrictions.

Corporate Credit (NFCs)

• Credit to NFCs has been in decline for 8 years, with negative growth in most EU countries.
• Cumulative contraction in the EU28 is -19% since 2009, while in the NMS, it is -8.7% below 2011 levels.
• Luxembourg recorded the highest increase in NFC credit (10.2%) since 2015, while Ireland, Slovenia, and Cyprus saw the most significant contractions (-9.3%, -10.7%, -14.4% respectively).
• The continued contraction of NFC credit suggests a weak monetary transmission mechanism and tight credit standards for corporations.

Country-Level Variations

• Credit-to-disposable income ratios vary widely, with Denmark having the highest (229.5%) and Romania the lowest (20.24%).
• Consumer credit as a percentage of GDP ranges from 3% in Lithuania and Latvia to 10% in Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, and the UK.
• Housing loans as a percentage of GDP are highest in Denmark (102.9%), Cyprus (72.46%), and the UK (70.25%), while Romania (7.7%), Hungary (8.36%), and Bulgaria (9.46%) have the lowest.

Recovery Outlook

• The EU28 and EA are showing signs of credit market recovery, particularly in household credit.
• The NMS are converging with the rest of the EU, as their credit markets have expanded more significantly.
• Corporate credit remains weak, with NFCs still in contraction, but the pace is slowing.
• If the current trends continue, aggregate credit growth for the EU28 may soon turn positive, signaling a potential full recovery.

Conclusion

The ECRI Statistical Package 2017 highlights a divergent recovery between household and corporate credit in Europe. While private credit markets are showing signs of recovery, particularly in the NMS, credit to NFCs remains in contraction. The data suggests that demand-side factors, such as household consumption and GDP growth, are driving the recovery, but corporate investment is still hindered by weak monetary transmission and tight credit conditions. The convergence of NMS with the rest of the EU is evident, and SME investment is identified as a key driver of future GDP growth.