2016年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Key_Findings_from_the_ECRI_Statistical_Package_2016_11页_736kb

报告摘要

Summary of The Trend Reversal of the Private Credit Market in the EU (ECRI Statistical Package 2016)

Core Content

The ECRI Statistical Package 2016 provides a detailed analysis of the evolution of the private credit market in the EU from 1995 to 2015, with additional data from selected non-EU countries including Mexico and Saudi Arabia. The report highlights a significant trend reversal in the EU credit market at the end of 2015, following six consecutive years of contraction, and outlines the heterogeneous developments across different sectors and country groups.

Main Findings

Total Non-Financial Lending in the EU

Total non-financial lending in the EU increased in real terms at the end of 2015 for the first time in six years.
The EU28 credit market started growing again in 2015, increasing by 0.7% in real terms compared to 2014.
The overall credit market showed a positive correlation with GDP growth, suggesting that a functioning credit market is essential for economic recovery.

Country-Level Trends

New Member States (NMSs): Registered a sharp increase in total non-financial debt in 2015, with a 12.3% cumulative growth since 2009.
EU15 Countries: Experienced only a slight expansion in total non-financial debt, with a 1.6% increase in 2015.
Euro Area (EA): Registered a 1.3% increase in household credit in 2015.

Sector-Specific Trends

Consumer Credit:
- Contraction of 23.2% in real terms between 2009 and 2014.
- A notable reversal in 2015, with a 2.8% increase in the EU.
- Most EU countries, except for several, experienced a contraction in consumer credit, with some, like Hungary, recording a seventh consecutive year of decline.
Housing Loans:
- Accounted for 77.7% of total household lending and 48% of total non-financial loans in the EU28.
- Registered a cumulative decrease of 0.4% between 2009 and 2014.
- Experienced a significant expansion in 2015, with an increase of 2.1% at the EU level.
- The Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) saw the most severe contractions, with 63.1% average decline in consumer credit.
Non-Financial Corporation Loans (NFCs):
- Registered the strongest contraction in the credit market, decreasing by 23.4% in real terms between 2009 and 2014.
- Continued to decline in 2015, with a 0.9% contraction.
- Ireland saw the most severe contraction, with business loans dropping to one-third of 2008 levels.
- NMSs experienced a 3.4% increase in business loans in 2015.

Key Factors Behind the Trend Reversal

Supply Side:
- The ECB's monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and Quantitative Easing (QE), played a central role in stabilizing the credit market.
- These measures helped reduce market volatility and stabilize economic expectations.
Demand Side:
- Household disposable income increased by 2.8% in 2015 compared to 2013, contributing to the recovery in consumer and housing lending.
- Economic sentiment remained stable and positive since Q1 2015.

Debt-to-Income and Debt-to-GDP Ratios

The lending-to-disposable income ratio for households increased from 88.8% in 2008 to 91.9% in 2014, but decreased to 91.4% in 2015.
In NMSs, the ratio increased to 48.5%, despite only a 0.59% increase in disposable income.
The credit-to-GDP ratio for households in the EU dropped to 56.6% in 2015, a 3.9% decrease from its peak in 2009.
In EU15 countries, the ratio fell from 62.9% in 2010 to 59.1% in 2015.
In NMSs, the ratio dropped to 29.1%, returning to the 2009 level.

Regional Disparities

The Mediterranean countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Latvia, Ireland) faced significant contractions in housing and consumer credit due to the sovereign debt crisis and foreign currency exposure.
Latvia experienced the hardest hit in housing loans, with 8 consecutive years of contraction.
Estonia and Lithuania reversed their trends in 2014-15, with 6.3% and 5.1% increases in housing loans, respectively.

Conclusion

The credit market in the EU has undergone a gradual transformation since 2008, with a significant trend reversal in 2015.
The housing sector has been a stable anchor for the credit market, despite regional disparities.
The recovery in consumer credit and the expansion in business loans in NMSs indicate a rebalancing of credit flows across the EU.
The ECRI plays a key role in monitoring and analyzing credit market trends, offering valuable insights for policymakers and researchers.

About the European Credit Research Institute (ECRI)

Founded in 1999 by the CEPS and a consortium of European credit institutions.
Focuses on retail finance, credit reporting, and regulatory changes in Europe and other regions.
Provides authoritative statistics and research on consumer credit and financial markets.
Website: www.ecri.eu