2018年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Key_Findings_of_the_ECRI_Statistical_Package_2018_28页_1mb

Summary of "Lending to European Households and Non-Financial Corporations: Growth and Trends in 2017"

Core Content Overview

This document presents an analysis of lending trends to households and non-financial corporations (NFCs) in Europe from 1995 to 2017, focusing on the ECRI Statistical Package 2018. It provides insights into credit volumes, growth rates, convergence patterns, and the factors influencing lending in different country groups, including the EU28, EU15, EA19, and NMS.

Key Findings

• Total Lending Growth in 2017: Total lending to households and NFCs in the EU28 increased by 0.8% in real terms in 2017, continuing the trend reversal from 2015 and ending a seven-year contraction. This growth was mainly driven by France, Germany, and the Netherlands.
• Pre-Crisis Levels: Despite the growth, the 2017 real level of total lending in the EU28, EU15, and EA19 still falls short of the 2007 pre-crisis level. The NMS (New Member States) are the only group that has surpassed the 2007 level.
• Sectoral Breakdown:
  • Housing Loans: Became a larger share of total credit in all country groups compared to 2007.
  • Consumer Credit: Experienced a slowdown in growth in 2017 compared to 2016, with only a few countries reaching pre-crisis levels.
• Convergence Patterns:
  • Sigma Convergence: The process of reducing dispersion in lending levels within country groups has slowed or halted since 2014, especially in the EU15, EU28, and EA19.
  • Beta Convergence: Countries with lower lending levels in 2007 experienced faster growth, but the relationship is weak (R-squared of 0.11).
• Regional Variations:
  • NMS: Showed strong convergence towards the EU28 average in terms of lending per capita, but experienced negative growth in 2017.
  • EU15, EU28, EA19: Started diverging again from one another since 2014.
• Household Indebtedness:
  • In the EU28, household credit as a percentage of gross disposable income (GDI) remained stable at 89% in 2017.
  • The NMS surpassed the 2007 ratio of 36%, showing the most significant recovery.
• Consumer Credit:
  • Consumer credit growth slowed in 2017 across all groups, with the NMS closest to pre-crisis levels.
  • Slovakia was the main driver of beta convergence in consumer credit.
  • The R-squared for beta convergence in consumer credit is 0.09, but the relationship is statistically significant.
• Foreign Currency Denomination:
  • In the EA19, consumer credit was heavily denominated in foreign currencies, especially the Swiss Franc.
  • Romania and Bulgaria had the highest shares of foreign currency-denominated consumer credit in 2017.
  • Hungary saw a dramatic decrease in foreign currency-denominated credit due to legislative changes in 2015.
  • Estonia converted all foreign currency loans to euros after joining the Euro Area in 2011.

Lending to Households

• EU28: Total lending to households increased by 0.9% in real terms in 2017, driven by France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Sweden.
• NMS: Total lending to households grew by 0.2% in 2017, with Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Romania as the best performers.
• EA19: Experienced stronger growth in 2017 (1.6%) compared to 2016 (0.8%).
• Convergence:
  • The NMS continued to converge towards the EU28 average, while the EU15, EU28, and EA19 diverged after 2014.
  • 16 countries in the EU28 were still below their 2010 lending levels.

Lending to Non-Financial Corporations (NFCs)

• EU28, EU15, EA19: Experiencing positive real growth in 2017 for the first time since 2010, ending a seven-year contraction.
• Germany, France, and Sweden: Contributed the most to the trend reversal in NFC lending.
• NMS: Had the highest growth in NFC lending, with a 16.3% increase from 2008, but returned to negative growth in 2017 (-0.2%).

Credit Market Trends

• EU28: The overall credit market showed a consolidation trend, with total credit increasing by 0.8% in 2017.
• Gross Disposable Income (GDI): GDI growth outpaced total household lending in the EU28, EU15, and EA19 since 2011, contributing to lower debt ratios.
• NMS: Continued to grow in terms of lending per capita, but showed signs of divergence in 2017.
• Euro Area Banks: Reported a net tightening of credit standards from 2011 to 2013 due to capital constraints, regulatory actions, and economic expectations.
• Consumer Demand: Declined in the Euro Area, with housing market prospects and consumer confidence as key factors.

Conclusion

• The document concludes with a regression analysis of lending drivers across the 1995–2017 period.
• Slovakia is highlighted as an outlier in both household and consumer credit growth, with strong growth but also emerging vulnerabilities.
• Prudential policies are recommended to address risks such as high loan-to-value ratios and non-performing loans.
• Currency denomination plays a significant role in credit dynamics, especially in countries with high foreign currency exposure.