2015全球奢侈品市场研究（英文版）_37页-9mb

2015 Global Luxury Goods Market Study Summary

Core Content

The Bain Luxury Study provides an in-depth analysis of the global luxury goods market in 2015, highlighting trends, regional performance, and distribution shifts. The study was conducted for Fondazione Altagamma, the trade association of Italian luxury-goods manufacturers.

The global luxury market, which includes 10 segments such as personal luxury goods, luxury cars, and fine art, surpassed €1 trillion in 2015. The market saw 5% year-over-year growth at constant exchange rates, driven by luxury cars (8%), luxury hospitality (7%), and fine arts (6%).

The personal luxury goods market, considered the "core of the core" of the luxury industry, reached €250 billion in 2015, with 13% growth at current exchange rates. However, real growth slowed to 1%-2%, indicating a shift to a "new normal" of lower growth rates. This slowdown was influenced by currency fluctuations and the continued spending of "borderless consumers."

Main Points

Regional Highlights

• Americas became the largest global region for personal luxury goods purchases, driven by the strong US dollar. The US alone accounted for €79 billion of the €85 billion regional market, representing over 90% of the total.
• Europe saw growth fueled by Chinese and US tourists, with Chinese tax-free purchases increasing by 64% and American tax-free purchases by 67%.
• Mainland China rose to the third-largest market globally, overtaking Italy and France, but local spending continued to contract slightly.
• New York City, Paris, and London remained the top luxury cities, each with a market over €10 billion.
• Japanese consumers dropped from over 25% of global purchases in 2000 to just 10% in 2015, while Chinese consumers now account for 31% of global luxury purchases.

Distribution Trends

• Wholesale still dominated, capturing 66% of the market, but retail gained share, growing twice as fast as wholesale.
• E-commerce grew to 7% market share, nearly doubling since 2012, with specialized players leading the charge, especially in the Americas.
• Airport retail saw 29% growth at current exchange rates and now accounts for 6% of the global luxury market.
• The off-price channel more than doubled to €26 billion, driven by the growing middle class and demand for value.
• Markdowns became more common, affecting over 35% of the luxury market, particularly in department stores and e-commerce.

Key Categories

Accessories

• Continued to lead the market with 30% share, growing at 3% in 2015.
• High-end shoes outperformed leather goods, growing at 4% vs. 2%.

Apparel

• The second-largest category, with 24% market share, growing at 2% in 2015.

Hard Luxury

• The third-largest category, with 22% market share, saw 3% contraction.
• Jewelry outperformed with 6% growth, while watches contracted by 6%, affected by overstocking in Asia.

Beauty

• Fragrances and cosmetics showed moderate growth.
• Makeup was the main growth driver, while skincare performed less strongly.
• Customized products and storytelling around scents and ingredients are gaining traction.

Outlook for the Future

• Luxury brands face the challenge of establishing the right pricing model in an era of increased price transparency due to e-commerce and currency fluctuations.
• Brands must manage inventory and coordinate pricing and markdowns across markets and channels.
• The role of brick-and-mortar is being re-evaluated in light of digitization.
• E-commerce is becoming more disruptive, but luxury brands are still struggling to adapt.
• Wholesale formats are attempting to modernize, while tactical channels like off-price and airport retail are becoming strategic.

Strategic Themes

• Strategic international pricing is now a key issue for luxury brands.
• Mature consumers are becoming more demanding and detached, while emerging consumers are price-conscious and seeking international bargains.
• Brands are adjusting pricing strategies in response to market volatility, sometimes with short-sighted approaches.

Methodology

• Retail sales value is used to track revenues, representing the final price paid by consumers.
• Bottom-up and top-down estimates are used to analyze market performance.
• The Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Observatory is a leading database tracking over 290 luxury-goods companies and brands.

Key Contacts

• Europe: Claudia D'Arpizio (claudia.darpizio@bain.com)
• Middle East & Africa: Federica Levato, Daniele Zito, Marc-Andre Kamel, Joëlle de Montgolfier, Serge Hoffmann, Oliver Merkel
• Americas: Darrell Rigby (darrell.rigby@bain.com)
• Asia-Pacific: Bruno Lannes (bruno.lannes@bain.com)

About the Study

• Bain & Company has published its annual luxury market study since 2000.
• The study is led by Claudia D'Arpizio, a Bain partner in Milan.
• Fondazione Altagamma is the trade association of Italian luxury-goods manufacturers, led by Andrea Illy since 2013.

Summary of Key Takeaways

• Currency fluctuations and "borderless consumers" drove market growth.
• The US and Europe remained the largest markets, but real growth slowed.
• E-commerce and off-price channels are gaining importance.
• Accessories led the market, with high-end shoes outperforming leather goods.
• Jewelry grew, while watches contracted due to Asian overstocking.
• Chinese consumers are a major driver of global luxury spending.
• Brands must adapt to changing consumer behavior and market dynamics.