2024-10-13-世界银行-小国的财政挑战_抵御风暴_重建韧性（英）_61页_901kb

Fiscal Challenges in Small States

Small states face significant fiscal and debt challenges, exacerbated by climate change and global shocks. These challenges include:

• High debt risk: 40% of 35 small states are in or at high risk of debt distress, double the share in other emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs).
• Fiscal fragility: Pandemics, natural disasters, and global recessions lead to fiscal balance deterioration.
• Structural issues: Limited tax bases, high public expenditure inefficiency, and reliance on volatile revenues (grants, remittances, tourism).

Key findings

• Post-pandemic impact: Fiscal deficits widened, revenues fell, and debt increased, with deficits averaging 3.3% of GDP in 2020–23 versus less than 1% in other EMDEs; debt rose due to persistent deficits and economic contractions.
• Global event impact: Natural disasters and global recessions cause greater fiscal damage in small states, with impacts persisting longer.
• Spending inefficiency: Public wage bills and subsidies contribute to inefficiency, while social spending is higher but outcomes not superior to other EMDEs.

Policy recommendations

1. Comprehensive fiscal reforms:
   • Strengthen domestic revenue mobilization (e.g., expand VATs, improve tax collection).
   • Enhance spending efficiency (e.g., reduce subsidies, reform state-owned enterprises).
   • Establish rules-based fiscal frameworks with adequate buffers and sovereign wealth funds to manage volatility.
2. International support: Coordinate financial and technical assistance to address debt challenges, improve access to climate finance, and enhance fiscal transparency.

Small states need resilient fiscal systems and global cooperation to achieve sustainability.