国际能源署-电力市场报告——2022年1月（英）-118页_5mb

Electricity Market Report Summary - January 2022

Core Content

The January 2022 edition of the IEA Electricity Market Report provides an analysis of global electricity demand, supply, and emissions from 2021 to 2024. It highlights the impact of the economic recovery from the pandemic, extreme weather conditions, and high energy prices on the electricity sector. The report also outlines the role of fossil fuels and renewables in meeting global demand and the challenges in reducing emissions to align with the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.

Main Points

Global Electricity Demand

• 2021 Growth: After a small drop in 2020, global electricity demand increased by 6%, the largest annual increase since 2010.
• 2022-2024 Outlook: The report forecasts an average annual demand growth of 2.7% for the period, with a slowdown expected in 2023 and 2024.
• Regional Contributions:
  • China accounted for around half of the global demand increase.
  • India contributed 12%.
  • Europe and United States contributed 7% and 4%, respectively.
• Sector Contributions:
  • The industrial sector was the largest contributor to demand growth.
  • The commercial and services sector followed, and the residential sector contributed the least.

Supply and Emissions

• Coal Generation:
  • Coal-fired generation reached a new all-time high, growing by 9% in 2021.
  • Coal met more than half of the global electricity demand increase.
  • Despite a slight decline from 2021 to 2024, coal is still expected to account for 34% of global generation in 2024.
• Renewables:
  • Renewables grew by 6% in 2021, the highest ever in absolute terms.
  • They are expected to grow by 8% annually from 2022 to 2024, meeting over 90% of net demand growth.
  • By 2024, renewables could supply more than 32% of the world's electricity.
• Gas Generation:
  • Gas-fired generation grew by 2% in 2021, but faced high prices and supply constraints.
  • Gas prices are expected to decline in the coming years, but coal remains more cost-competitive.
• Emissions:
  • Global electricity sector emissions increased by 7% in 2021, reaching a record high.
  • Emissions are expected to plateau during 2022-2024, with low-carbon generation increasing to 42% of total generation by 2024.
  • The emissions intensity of the global power system increased by 1% in 2021, the first rise since 2011, but is expected to decline by 2% annually from 2022 to 2024.

Fossil Fuel Prices and Market Dynamics

• Gas and Coal Prices:
  • Both gas and coal prices surged in the second half of 2021, driven by tight supply-demand conditions.
  • In the United States, Henry Hub gas prices more than doubled from 2020 levels.
  • In the European Union, gas prices on the TTF reached all-time highs.
• Fuel Switching:
  • High gas prices led to a switch from gas to coal in the US and Europe, increasing coal demand and emissions.
  • In Japan and Korea, coal prices are expected to decline by 10% over the next three years, making coal more cost-competitive again.

Regional Perspectives

• China and India:
  • Both countries experienced severe electricity supply shortages in September and October 2021 due to high demand and coal supply constraints.
  • China saw 11% annual demand growth in the first three quarters of 2021, with industrial demand being the main driver.
  • India faced a 7% drop in demand in April-May 2021 due to the pandemic, but quickly recovered, reaching 10% annual growth in 2021.
• Emerging and Developing Asia:
  • This region is expected to be the main driver of global demand growth.
• Other Regions:
  • Europe and the US saw slower growth in demand due to energy efficiency measures.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa continued its economic recovery, with GDP growth expected to remain above 3.5% through 2024.

Key Information

• 2021 Highlights:
  • Global electricity demand increased by 6%, the largest annual increase since 2010.
  • Coal and gas generation hit record levels due to high prices and supply constraints.
  • Emissions from the electricity sector reached a new all-time high.
• 2022-2024 Outlook:
  • Renewables are expected to grow 8% annually, surpassing fossil fuels in supply growth.
  • Fossil fuel-based generation is projected to stagnate, with coal expected to decline slightly in the US and Europe.
  • Emissions are expected to plateau, but not decrease as needed for the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
• Policy and Market Response:
  • The IEA warns that current policies are insufficient to reduce emissions significantly.
  • Governments in China and India took measures to stabilise power supply, including reopening coal mines and prioritising coal supply for power plants.
  • Energy efficiency and low-carbon supply are essential for the electricity sector to fulfill its decarbonisation role.

Summary of Key Trends

• Demand Growth:
  • 2021: 6% global increase.
  • 2022-2024: Average annual growth of 2.7%, with a slowdown in 2023 and 2024.
• Supply Growth:
  • Renewables: Expected to grow by 8% annually.
  • Coal: Expected to grow slightly, but remain dominant.
  • Gas: Expected to decline in competitiveness, but still grow.
• Emissions:
  • 2021: Increased by 7%, reaching a record high.
  • 2022-2024: Emissions are expected to plateau, with low-carbon generation increasing to 42%.
• Price Dynamics:
  • Gas prices were particularly high in Europe, contributing to high wholesale electricity prices.
  • Coal prices were also high, but expected to decline in the coming years.
• Policy Implications:
  • The report underscores the need for stronger climate policies and greater investment in energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies to meet long-term decarbonisation goals.