20181205-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_3页_616kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary: 2019 Investment Strategy

Core Content Overview

The Dim Sum Express report by GF Securities provides an analysis of the 2019 investment strategies across key sectors and companies in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets. It outlines market performance, sector outlooks, and specific stock recommendations, with a focus on long-term competitiveness and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Market Performance

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	18E EPS (%)	19E EPS (%)	18E P/E	19E P/E
HSI	0.3	5.1	-8.9	33.1	10.7	11.4	10.3
HSCEI	0.2	3.4	-6.8	8.6	10.4	8.4	7.6
MXCN	-0.5	4.6	-13.6	38.5	14.4	12.3	10.8
SHSZ300	0.2	0.1	-18.9	29.5	14.2	11.4	10.0
SHCOMP	0.4	0.0	-19.4	34.3	12.1	10.9	9.7
INDU	-3.1	-1.7	1.2	48.2	8.8	15.7	14.4
SPX	-3.2	-1.4	1.0	50.3	8.9	16.5	15.1
CCMP	-3.8	-2.3	3.7	80.7	13.0	21.0	18.6
UKX	-0.6	-1.1	-8.7	176.0	7.2	12.4	11.6
NKY	-1.0	-0.3	-4.1	62.7	13.0	15.8	14.0

Macro uncertainties are affecting demand across markets, but cost improvements are evident in some sectors.
The HSI and HSCEI have shown mixed performance with positive monthly gains but negative YTD results.
MXCN and SHCOMP have experienced significant declines in YTD, indicating volatility.
INDU, SPX, and CCMP have also seen mixed results, with some indices showing positive EPS growth but others declining.
UKX and NKY show strong EPS growth, but negative YTD performance suggests market challenges.

Sector Analysis

[Home Appliances]

Sector Rating: Neutral
Key Points:
- Demand may slow due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but cost improvements are expected.
- Sales volume may face pressure, but ASPs (Average Selling Prices) of refrigerators and washing machines are likely to rise.
- Long-term upside from consumption upgrades, efficiency improvements, and smart home trends.
- Recommended Companies: Midea (000333 CH), Qindao Haier (600690 CH), GREE (000651 CH)
- Watch List: SUPOR (002032 CH), Joyoung (002242 CH), Flyco Electrical Appliance (603868 CH), Ecovacs (603486 CH)

[Steel]

Sector Rating: Neutral
Key Points:
- Steel production capacity is expected to decrease by 7.2% from 2018 to 2020 due to supply-side reforms.
- Government policy may shift from reform to stabilization in 2019, potentially loosening regulations but introducing uncertainty.
- Crude steel volume growth may align with or slow down pig iron growth, offsetting any additional supply from relaxed curtailments.

[Commerce & Trading]

Sector Rating: Neutral
Key Points:
- Total consumption growth is limited due to macroeconomic uncertainties.
- Mass consumption upgrades and expansion in third and fourth-tier markets offer opportunities.
- E-commerce advantages are fading, and private brands and membership systems are becoming key differentiators.
- Recommended Companies: Nanji E-Commerce (002127 CH), Chow Tai Seng Jewellery (002867 CH), Rainbow Department Store (002419 CH), Lao Feng Xiang (600612 CH), Suning.com (002024 CH), Yonghui Superstores (601933 CH)

[H-share Retail]

Sector Rating: Neutral
Key Points:
- Hong Kong retail sales grew by 5.9% YoY in October, slightly better than September's 2.4%.
- Tourist arrivals increased by 11.5% YoY, but average spending decreased, leading to a weaker sales rebound.
- The trend is expected to continue until Sino-US trade tensions ease.
- Nov and Dec sales may show slight growth or zero growth due to a high base in 2018.
- Market sentiment is unlikely to recover quickly due to ongoing uncertainties.

[H-share Food & Beverage]

Sector Rating: Neutral
Key Points:
- A macroeconomic downturn in 1H19 may pressure valuations and earnings.
- Raw material costs are expected to decline, but labor costs will rise.
- Healthcare products and dairy products show strong growth potential.
- Recommended Companies: H&H (1112 HK) for healthcare products; Mengniu (2319 HK) and Yili (600887 CH) for dairy products.
- Hot pot sector faces increasing cost pressures from raw materials and labor.

Company Highlights

[Yihai Int'l (1579 HK)]

Rating: Hold
Key Points:
- Growth in third-party channels may slow after rapid expansion.
- Monetization through the Hai Di Lao brand may not be sustainable, requiring more investment in own brands.
- EPS Estimates: Rmb0.49 (2018), Rmb0.59 (2019), Rmb0.72 (2020)
- P/E Estimates: 40.55x (2018), 33.41x (2019), 27.45x (2020)

[Yonghui Superstore (601933 CH)]

Rating: Accumulate
Key Points:
- Sold a 20% stake in Yonghui Yunchuang for Rmb394m to relieve short-term loss pressure.
- Yonghui Yunchuang reported Rmb1,478m revenue and Rmb613m net loss in 9M18.
- Purchased a 1.5% stake in Wanda Commercial Management for Rmb3.53bn.
- Net Profit Estimates: Rmb1.5bn (2018), Rmb2.2bn (2019), Rmb3.0bn (2020)
- P/E (2018E): 47x

Rating Definitions

Rating	Definition
Buy	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

Sector Rating	Definition
Positive	Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Disclaimer & Disclosures

The report is not an offer to buy or sell securities.
No liability is accepted for losses arising from the use of the report.
Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Disclosure of interests states that GF Securities (Hong Kong) has no direct or indirect financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Contact Information

GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited
Address: 29-30/F, Li Po Chun Chambers, 189 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong
Tel: +852 3719 1111
Fax: +852 2907 6176
Website: http://www.qfgroup.com.hk

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