2009年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Crisis_50页_940kb

Summary of "Crisis-Related Measures in the Financial System and Sovereign Balance Sheet Risks"

Core Content

This document, prepared by the Fiscal Affairs and Monetary and Capital Markets Departments of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), analyzes the impact of crisis-related financial interventions on sovereign balance sheets and outlines the challenges and considerations for managing and unwinding these interventions. It highlights the need for a comprehensive and transparent approach to fiscal and financial management, emphasizing the importance of balancing financial stability with fiscal solvency.

Main Points and Key Information

I. Introduction

• Scope of Interventions: Country authorities have intervened extensively in the financial system in response to the crisis, including through guarantees, liquidity support, asset purchases, and recapitalizations.
• Impact on Balance Sheets: While the fiscal deficit has not increased significantly, sovereign balance sheets have expanded, and risk exposures have risen.
• Complexity of Interventions: Interventions have been implemented by a wide range of public institutions, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), leading to blurred institutional roles and increased risk spillovers.
• Need for Coordination: There is a growing recognition of the need for both domestic and international coordination to manage the unwinding of interventions and avoid long-term distortions.

II. Crisis-Related Interventions: Modalities and Implications

A. Objectives and Scope of Intervention

• Early Interventions: Initially focused on liquidity support and containment measures like deposit insurance and lending facilities.
• Later Interventions: Shifted to asset clean-up, recapitalization, and real sector support as the crisis deepened.
• Diverse Measures: Countries have adopted different intervention strategies depending on their economic conditions, such as:
  • Liquidity facilities (e.g., repo operations, FX swaps)
  • Capital injections (e.g., equity purchases, subordinated debt)
  • Asset purchases (e.g., troubled assets, corporate bonds)
  • Guarantees (e.g., deposit guarantees, wholesale guarantees)
• Announced vs. Actual Support: Announced support often exceeds actual use due to over-commitment, implementation delays, and less severe financial conditions than anticipated.

B. Implications for Sovereign Balance Sheets

• Fiscal Risks: Interventions have increased fiscal risks, particularly through contingent liabilities such as guarantees.
• Balance Sheet Expansion: Government and central bank balance sheets have expanded significantly, with central banks showing more dramatic growth due to unconventional measures.
• Net Worth Impact: While net debt has increased, net worth has not been as severely impacted due to asset acquisitions and the use of guarantees.
• Risk Management: The financial sector's problems have spilled over to the nonfinancial private sector, increasing the complexity of managing risk exposures.

III. Managing the Expanded Role of the Sovereign

A. Framework for Sovereign Asset-Liability Management (ALM)

• Medium-Term Strategy: A clear medium-term macroeconomic strategy is essential for maintaining confidence in fiscal solvency and financial stability.
• Risk Assessment: Stress testing and scenario analysis are crucial for evaluating the potential impact of different macroeconomic shocks and contingent liabilities.
• Transparency: A Statement of Fiscal Risks should be published annually to communicate the risks and expected losses associated with interventions.
• Valuation Challenges: Accurate valuation of assets and liabilities is necessary, but it is complicated by market volatility and the nature of financial engineering.

B. Managing the Central Bank Balance Sheet

• Expansion of Central Bank Balance Sheets: Central banks have significantly expanded their balance sheets through liquidity support and unconventional measures.
• Need for Reimbursement: Central banks should be reimbursed for any losses from crisis-related interventions, and quasi-fiscal activities should be transferred to the government budget.
• Independence and Accountability: Reimbursement should not undermine the independence of central banks, and adequate capital should be ensured for long-term sustainability.

C. Managing the Government Balance Sheet

• Asset and Liability Management: Governments must manage acquired assets and liabilities to protect fiscal solvency and ensure recovery.
• Avoiding Unrequited Support: Governments should minimize unrequited capital injections and maximize recovery rates.
• Budgetary Impact: Budgets must reflect the full cost of guarantees, including reserve provisions for expected losses.

D. Maintaining a Competitive Environment

• Avoiding Protectionism: Interventions should be designed to ensure a level playing field and avoid protectionist tendencies.
• Private Recapitalization: Incentives for private sector recapitalization should be developed, and support should be targeted to avoid market distortions.

IV. Unwinding Sovereign Interventions

A. Defining the Challenge

• Phased Approach: A phased and orderly unwinding of interventions is necessary to avoid market disruptions and maximize asset recovery.
• Market Confidence: Confidence that conditions are normalizing is crucial for the success of unwinding strategies.
• Timing and Conditions: The timing of unwinding depends on macroeconomic conditions and structural preconditions.

B. Sequencing and Timing

• Preconditions for Unwinding: Clear indicators of financial stability and market confidence should be used to determine when interventions can be unwound.
• Common Methodologies: Cross-regulator approaches to stress testing and risk assessment can enhance credibility and consistency.

C. Unwinding Individual Measures

• Close Facilities: Redundant or ineffective support mechanisms should be closed first.
• Transfer of Risk: Risks under guarantee programs should be gradually transferred to the private sector.
• Asset Disposal: Assets should be sold at the lowest possible loss to minimize fiscal impact.

D. Additional Considerations

• Valuation and Market Signals: Incentives for price discovery should be maintained to avoid market distortions.
• Fiscal and Monetary Objectives: Unwinding should support monetary policy objectives and fiscal sustainability.

E. Role of Domestic and International Coordination

• Coordination is Key: Domestic and international coordination is essential to manage the unwinding process and reduce long-term distortions.
• Common Standards: International cooperation and shared methodologies can enhance the credibility of unwinding strategies.
• Signal Normalization: Clear signals that conditions are normalizing can help restore market confidence and reduce arbitrage opportunities.

V. Issues for Discussion

• The need for a comprehensive sovereign balance sheet approach.
• The importance of transparency and accountability in managing fiscal risks.
• The role of central banks and SWFs in crisis interventions and their long-term implications.
• The necessity of international coordination to ensure consistency and minimize distortions.
• The development of clear, market-based indicators for the unwinding of support measures.

Key Policy Messages

• Comprehensive Balance Sheet Approach: All public entities involved in financial interventions should be considered in sovereign balance sheet management.
• Fiscal Accounting: Fiscal accounts should reflect the full cost of interventions, including the subsidy component and potential losses.
• Phased Unwinding: A phased approach is essential to ensure an orderly exit from crisis-related support.
• Transparency and Risk Communication: A Statement of Fiscal Risks should be used to communicate and manage risks effectively.
• International Coordination: Coordination across borders is necessary to ensure consistent and credible unwinding strategies.

Conclusion

The document underscores the critical need for a structured and transparent approach to managing and unwinding crisis-related financial interventions. It emphasizes the importance of balancing fiscal solvency with financial stability, ensuring that the expanded role of the sovereign does not compromise long-term economic health. The focus is on developing robust asset-liability management frameworks, minimizing contingent liabilities, and promoting a competitive financial environment through coordinated domestic and international efforts.