2007年-世界发展银行全球_StrategicSectoral_Social_and_Environmental_Assessment_of_Power_Development_Options_in_the_Nile_Equatorial_Lakes_Region___Executive_Summary_44页_2mb

Strategic/Sectoral Social and Environmental Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report is a Strategic/Sectoral Social and Environmental Assessment (SSEA) of power development options in the Nile Equatorial Lakes (NEL) Region of Africa. It was prepared by SNC-Lavalin International in association with several consulting firms and supported by the World Bank and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA). The assessment aims to provide strategic guidance for power sector development in the region, including an indicative development plan for the year 2020.

The report evaluates various power generation options such as hydroelectric, thermal, geothermal, wind, and solar, and compares them based on cost, environmental impact, social considerations, and risk. It also outlines load growth scenarios and power development portfolios to guide future investments and planning.

Main Viewpoints

1. Electricity Access and Demand

• Only 2% to 9% of the population in the NEL region has access to electricity.
• The region's current electricity consumption is about 95 kWh/capita/year, significantly lower than the 930 kWh/capita/year for all of Africa.
• Electricity demand is expected to increase by 2,700 MW and 16,000 GWH by 2020 under a medium growth scenario.

2. Power Development Options

• The SSEA identified and screened various power options, including hydroelectric, thermal, geothermal, and wind.
• Hydroelectric is the most viable option due to its low cost and high capacity.
• Thermal and gas-fired options are also considered, though they are more expensive and have higher environmental and social impacts.
• Geothermal and wind are promising but require further feasibility studies and more detailed data.

3. Environmental and Social Impacts

• Hydroelectric projects have significant impacts on wetlands, biodiversity, and local communities, including resettlement and health risks such as malaria and bilharzia.
• Thermal plants contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and acid rain, which have broader environmental and public health implications.
• Geothermal and wind projects have lower environmental impact but are less developed in the region.

4. Legal and Policy Context

• Five of the six countries in the NEL region have environmental assessment processes in place that align with international standards.
• Resettlement policies and international conventions are not yet fully implemented.
• DRC is the only country that prohibits interventions on rivers within parks and reserves, while others require Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs).

5. Regional Integration and Interconnection

• The report emphasizes the importance of regional power interconnection to reduce costs and create synergies.
• It recommends immediate steps to move towards regional integration to enhance electricity security and socio-economic development.

Key Information

Recommended Projects for Immediate Implementation

Recommended Projects for Study and Implementation

Screening Criteria

• Availability of data (pre-feasibility level or better)
• Tolerable environmental and socio-economic impacts
• Unit cost below 10 cents US/kWh
• Regional relevance (minimum 10 MW for Rwanda, Burundi, and Eastern DRC; 30 MW for EAC countries)

Regional Energy Needs Assessment

• Four load growth scenarios were developed: base, medium, high, and transformation.
• Under medium growth, the region will require an incremental capacity of 2,700 MW.
• The transformation scenario is the most ambitious, requiring 8,600 MW of additional capacity.
• Electricity demand forecasting is based on historical trends and assumes continued socioeconomic development.

Power Development Portfolios

• The report recommends three portfolios:
  • Portfolio 2Bb: A mix of hydro, gas, and geothermal options.
  • Portfolio 2Bc: A mix of hydro and gas.
  • Portfolio 2Bd: A mix of hydro and geothermal.
• Portfolio 2Bb is the preferred indicative development plan, as it balances cost, environmental impact, and social considerations.

Cumulative Impacts

• Portfolio 2Bb involves:
  • Environmental impacts: Modification of wetlands and river ecosystems, sedimentation, and habitat loss.
  • Socio-economic impacts: Resettlement of communities, loss of tourism and fishing opportunities, and health risks.
• Other portfolios may have higher cumulative impacts, particularly in terms of resettlement and biodiversity loss.

Strategic Conclusions

• Hydroelectric power is the most viable option due to its low cost and high capacity.
• Regional integration is essential to reduce costs and increase electricity security.
• Climate change poses a significant risk to power generation, particularly in terms of runoff and hydrological changes.
• Further studies are needed for geothermal, wind, and gas-fired projects to confirm their feasibility and impact.

Recommendations

• Implement selected hydro projects as soon as possible to address current power shortages.
• Conduct further studies on geothermal, wind, and gas-fired projects.
• Move towards regional integration to enhance efficiency and electricity security.
• Develop and finance 100 MW of existing hydro options and strengthen transmission.
• Ensure compliance with environmental and social standards, including resettlement policies and impact assessments.

Conclusion

This SSEA provides a strategic framework for power development in the NEL region, emphasizing hydroelectric projects and regional integration. It highlights the need for comprehensive environmental and social impact assessments, policy alignment, and investment in transmission infrastructure to support sustainable and equitable development.