2007年-世界发展银行全球_StrategicSectoral_Social_and_Environmental_Assessment_of_Power_Development_Options_in_the_Nile_Equatorial_Lakes_Region___Main_Report_274页_5mb

Strategic/Sectoral Social and Environmental Assessment (SSEA) of Power Development Options in the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region

Core Content Summary

This report, prepared by SNC-Lavalin International in association with various consultants and supervised by The World Bank, presents a strategic and sectoral assessment of power development options in the Nile Equatorial Lakes (NEL) Region, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and the Eastern part of the DRC. The study was conducted over a three-year period as part of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and NELSAP.

The main objective is to provide a strategic framework for power sector development in the region, with a focus on low-cost power generation, regional electricity trade, and reducing environmental and social impacts. It includes a NELSAP Indicative Power Development Strategy and a Preferred Project Portfolio to meet the region’s power needs up to 2020.

Key Findings and Main Points

1. Electricity Access and Demand

• Only 2% to 9% of the population in the region has access to electricity.
• The total electricity demand is expected to increase by 2,700 MW and 16,000 GWh by 2020.
• The current per capita consumption is 95 kWh/year, which is about 10 times lower than the average in Africa.
• The region’s electricity demand is currently exceeded by the available supply.

2. Load Growth Scenarios

• Base scenario: Incremental load growth of 3.7% to 4.0%
• Medium scenario: Incremental load growth of 5.6% to 6.3%
• High scenario: Incremental load growth of 6.8% to 6.1%
• Transformation scenario: Incremental load growth of 5.1% to 15%

3. Power Development Options

• A wide range of power generation options were identified and screened, including hydro, geothermal, thermal, wind, and demand-side management.
• The study identified 9100 MW of hydro capacity and 2395 MW of thermal and geothermal capacity, but after screening, only 1899 MW of hydro and 2095 MW of thermal and geothermal were retained.
• Wind energy was also considered, with 2 X 30 MW assumed for Tanzania.

4. Screening Criteria

• Availability of pre-feasibility data or better
• Tolerable environmental and socio-economic impacts
• Unit cost below 10 cents US/kWh
• Regional relevance (minimum 10 MW for Rwanda, Burundi, and Eastern DRC; 30 MW for EAC countries)

5. Preferred Power Development Portfolio

• Recommendation A: Implement Bujagali (Uganda), Kabu 16 (Rwanda/Burundi), Kakono (Tanzania) as soon as possible due to their low cost and acceptable environmental and social impacts.
• Recommendation B: Study and implement Rusumo Falls (Rwanda/Tanzania), Ruzizi III (Rwanda/DRC), Suswa (Kenya), and others in the medium to long term.
• Recommendation C: Promote immediate interconnection and integration of power systems to reduce costs and enhance regional cooperation.
• Recommendation D: Develop and finance 100 MW of existing hydro options and strengthen transmission infrastructure, including environmental and socio-economic studies for the Semliki River Basin.

6. Environmental and Social Considerations

• Thermal plants (gas and coal) contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, acid rain, and public health risks.
• Hydro projects have significant impacts on wetlands, biodiversity, and local communities, particularly in Kilambero, Kivu, and Rufiji River areas.
• Interconnection is recommended to minimize environmental and social risks by using diverse technologies and reducing reliance on single sources.

7. Legal and Policy Context

• Five of the six countries have environmental assessment processes compatible with international standards, though experience is limited.
• No country has implemented resettlement policies compliant with international requirements.
• The DRC prohibits interventions on rivers within parks and reserves, while others require Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs).
• Regional legislation should be developed to facilitate power trade and regulate imports to minimize disruption.

8. Regional Energy Needs

• The region needs 1,500 to 8,600 MW of additional capacity depending on the growth scenario.
• The most significant environmental impacts are from thermal plants and hydro projects in Kagera and Rufiji River basins.
• The Albert Nile and Sudd Marshes are not significantly affected by hydro development.

9. Options Set Aside

• 521 MW of hydropower potential was excluded due to insufficient data, though it could be reconsidered if further studies confirm its viability.

Conclusion

The SSEA outlines a comprehensive strategy for the region’s power development, emphasizing interconnection, diversification, and low-impact projects. It highlights the urgent need to address the current electricity shortages and ensure future supply with a realistic reserve margin. The report serves as a guideline for future investment planning and policy development, while acknowledging the need for more detailed project-specific assessments.