2021-10-31-牛津经济研究院-Singapore_Weaker_demographics_will_slow_long-term_growth_4页_198kb

Summary of Singapore Demographic Report

Key Findings

• Singapore's population is projected to permanently contract by 2.6% by 2030 relative to its pre-COVID baseline, primarily due to continuous population decline since mid-2019.
• Non-resident population has plummeted 12.6%, while resident population decreased by 1%, attributed to border closures restricting foreign worker inflows.
• Foreign workers, especially low-skilled ones (contracted 15.1%), will drive partial recovery; however, high-skilled inflows are unlikely to rebound fully due to stricter government regulations.
• Working-age population will decline from 2026 onwards after a temporary rebound from 2022-2025, worsening the demographic drag.
• Long-term potential growth is revised down to 2.7% annually (previously 3.8%), influenced by weaker labor supply and insufficient compensation from productivity gains.
• Short-term consumption may be offset by accumulated savings, but long-term growth faces sustainability challenges.

Impact on Economy

• Permanent population shortfall will weigh on private consumption and household income.
• Labor participation rate may partially mitigate decline, but long-term TFP growth is expected to slow by 0.04ppts, limiting overall growth.