2025-06-10-花旗集团-苹果公司（AAPL）_苹果公司（AAPL.O）_2025年苹果全球开发者大会-为2026年股票表现奠定良好基础_22页_2mb

Apple, Inc. (AAPL.O) Summary

Core Content and Main Points

Apple Inc. (AAPL.O) held its 2025 Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), showcasing major software design updates, new operating systems, and enhancements to Apple Intelligence across all its platforms. The company introduced a unified "Liquid Glass" design, which is expected to improve the user experience and further integrate its ecosystem. Key highlights include:

• Vision Pro Improvements: Continued development and refinement of Vision Pro, focusing on enterprise applications.
• iPadOS and macOS Integration: iPadOS became more Mac-like, and more iPhone apps are now available on macOS, enhancing cross-device continuity.
• Apple Intelligence: Deep integration of AI features such as live translation, ChatGPT integration, and Visual Intelligence across devices. Personalized Siri was delayed to 2026, but Apple Intelligence updates were largely in line with investor expectations.

The report maintains a Buy recommendation with a current price of US$201.45 and a target price of US$240.00, projecting a 19.1% expected share price return and a 19.7% total return. The expected dividend yield is 0.5%, with a slight increase to 0.6% in 2027.

Financial Forecasts

Revenue and Profitability

EPS Projections

Growth Rates

Valuation Ratios

iPhone Demand and Market Outlook

• China Sales: Despite a decline in April 2025, Apple's iPhone sales in China are expected to stabilize in the Jun-Q due to a temporary pause in reciprocal tariffs and ongoing promotions. However, there is uncertainty in the second half of the year.
• Global Outlook: Citi adjusted its global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 0.4% / 2.2% / 3.1% Y/Y growth, from +5.4% / 2.0% / 2.1% previously. The slowdown is attributed to macroeconomic challenges and trade tensions, particularly in China and the US.
• Apple's iPhone Forecasts: Citi maintains its iPhone unit forecasts of 226M / 234M for 2025 and 2026, with -0.6% / 3.2% Y/Y growth. The company may see a pull-in effect in the Jun-Q due to tariff-related factors.

Services Update

• App Store Revenue: Sensor Tower data indicates a 12% / 13% Y/Y growth in April and May, aligning with Citi's model of 12% for Jun-Q (Street at 11%).
• Key Markets:
  • US: 9% Y/Y growth in May.
  • China: 5% Y/Y growth in May.
  • EU: 22% Y/Y growth in May.
• App Store Features: The Photos & Videos category showed 40% + growth, while the Games category saw a slight dip in May.
• Regulatory Impact: The loss of the antitrust case against Epic Games raises concerns about the sustainability of services growth. However, no significant decline in app store revenue has been observed yet.

Regulatory Risks

• Google Antitrust Case: Apple is facing a potential loss of ~$20Bn in TAC revenue if it loses the case. This could result in an annual EPS impact of $-1.42 in the bear case.
• EU DMA Fines: Apple was fined $570M for violating EU anti-geo-blocking rules. The company has one month to respond and propose commitments.
• Other Cases: Ongoing investigations by the UK CMA and China SAMR regarding app store fees and market dominance.

Key Takeaways

• Apple Intelligence: Strong integration across devices, with new features like live translation and Visual Intelligence. The company is opening its LLM models to developers through a new "Foundation Models framework."
• Unified Design: Introduction of the "Liquid Glass" design across all platforms, with new naming conventions for OS versions.
• Software Updates:
  • iOS 26: Introduces intuitive app designs and enhanced communication features.
  • iPadOS 26: New features like a menu bar and improved multitasking, making the iPad experience more Mac-like.
  • macOS Tahoe 26: Includes Live Activities and enhanced Spotlight for powerful searches.
  • Watch OS 26: Introduces Workflow Buddy and improved Smart Stack.
  • tvOS 26: New designs and integration with Apple Music and iPhone.

Conclusion

Apple's 2025 WWDC was well-received, with significant software updates and a strong push towards AI integration. Despite regulatory challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties, the company is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, particularly in the US and China. Citi's Buy recommendation reflects confidence in Apple's long-term potential, supported by its robust financials and strategic initiatives.