2025-05-18-世界卫生组织-WHO_Rapid_Risk_Assessment_Guidance_v.2.1_10页_536kb

WHO Rapid Risk Assessment Guidance v.2.1 Summary

Definitions and Overview

• Event: A verified signal becomes an event and is systematically risk-assessed by WHO; initial assessments may be updated.
• Rapid Risk Assessment (RRA): A process to evaluate health event risks using a template; conducted by WHO Public Health Intelligence teams.
• Event Types:
  • National event: Requires national and potentially WHO country office intervention.
  • Regional event: Involves or impacts multiple adjacent countries; needs coordination.
  • Global event: Transcends regions; requires international coordination.
• Confidence: Reflects trust in available data at the time of assessment.

Objectives

• Evaluate potential human health impact.
• Categorize risk using Hazard, Exposure, and Context approach into low, moderate, high, or very high levels.
• Recommend specific actions for WHO, including grading the event if necessary.
• Identify stakeholders for communication and information sharing.

Key Considerations for Events

• Events eligible for RRA include those with high uncertainty, unknown causes, multiple countries involvement, dangerous pathogens, or vulnerable settings.
• Systematic evaluation is required for all IHR Annex 2-notified events; RRA may be deferred if elements aren't met.

Conducting the Assessment

• Process Overview: Uses a structured template with two sections:
  • Section 1 – Summary: Includes key information like overall risk, justification, recommended actions, and communications.
  • Section 2 – Supporting Information: Covers hazard, exposure, and context details based on STEEEP factors (social, technical/scientific, economic, environmental, ethical, policy/political).
• Steps:
  • Convene a multi-level team for holistic assessment.
  • Define the event and gather data.
  • Address risk questions, considering morbidity, case fatality, spread potential, and control capacities.
  • Use matrices to categorize risk based on likelihood (almost certain to minimal) and consequences (severe to minimal).
  • Determine overall risk and recommended actions.

Tools and References

• Risk Matrix and Interpretation: Guidelines in appendices for categorizing likelihood and consequences, leading to risk classification.
• Actions: Can include reviewing IHR Emergency Committee, activating response mechanisms, or seeking more information.
• Confidence Note: Separate from risk assessment and based on data reliability.
• Version 2.1 (2018) references WHO guidelines on emergency response and early warning systems.