布鲁盖尔-Designing-a-new-EU_13页_688kb

Summary of "Designing a New EU-Turkey Strategic Gas Partnership"

Core Content

The document discusses the strategic importance of establishing a new EU-Turkey gas partnership in the context of the 2014 Ukraine crisis, which heightened energy security concerns in the EU. It outlines the need for diversification of natural gas supplies to reduce dependency on Russian gas and enhance energy security for both the EU and Turkey. The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is identified as a key initiative to achieve this goal, with Turkey playing a central role as a transit hub.

Main Points

• Energy Security and the SGC: The EU's Energy Union Communication (February 2015) emphasizes the need for diversification of gas supplies and the strengthening of the SGC. Turkey is highlighted as a critical partner in this corridor, enabling Central Asian gas to reach Europe.

• Strategic Energy Partnership: The EU and Turkey are encouraged to establish a dedicated strategic energy partnership to enhance cooperation and security in the region. This includes:

  • Energy Diplomacy Taskforces: Four taskforces (EU-Turkey-Azerbaijan, EU-Turkey-Turkmenistan, EU-Turkey-Iran, EU-Turkey-Kurdistan) should be formed to leverage their respective diplomatic strengths.
  • Financing Mechanism: A joint financing initiative should be developed to support gas infrastructure projects, particularly the upgrade of Turkey's gas grid, with the European Investment Bank potentially playing a role.

• Nabucco's Failure: The Nabucco pipeline project, which aimed to bring gas from Central Asia to Europe via Turkey, failed due to commercial and financial challenges, including weak demand forecasts, uncertainty over supply, competition from Russian projects, and lack of long-term contracts.

• Post-Nabucco Developments: The failure of Nabucco led to the emergence of a new version of the SGC, primarily driven by Azerbaijan. The TANAP and TAP pipelines are now central to this new strategy, with TANAP connecting Azerbaijan to Turkey and TAP linking it to Europe.

• Turkmenistan's Potential: Turkmenistan, with vast natural gas reserves, is a potential supplier to the SGC. However, its ability to export to Europe via Turkey depends on resolving the legal status of the Caspian Sea and addressing environmental concerns related to the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP).

• Iran's Role: Iran, the world's largest natural gas reserve holder, has been constrained by international sanctions and an unattractive legal framework for foreign investment. The potential for future gas exports to the EU via Turkey is high, but requires political and legal cooperation. The EU is advised to act as a mediator between Iran and Turkey.

• Kurdistan Region of Iraq: The KRI has emerged as a new potential gas supplier, with existing agreements with Turkey. However, its development is contingent on internal political stability and regional security.

Key Recommendations

1. Establish Energy Diplomacy Taskforces: The EU and Turkey should form dedicated taskforces with each potential supplier (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, KRI) to enhance diplomatic coordination and overcome trade barriers.

2. Create a Financing Initiative: A joint financing mechanism should be developed to support gas infrastructure, especially the upgrade of Turkey's gas grid, to facilitate the flow of regional gas supplies to the EU.

3. Promote Diversification: The EU should prioritize diversification of gas sources to reduce overreliance on Russian supplies, even if it entails higher costs, as energy security is a critical priority.

4. Enhance Cooperation with Turkey: The EU should work closely with Turkey to secure future gas supplies from Iran and the KRI, leveraging Turkey's commercial influence and the EU's diplomatic standing.

Regional Gas Producers Overview

• Azerbaijan: A key player in the SGC, with 1.2 tcm of natural gas reserves. It is expected to export 10 bcm/y to Europe by 2020 via the TAP pipeline.

• Turkmenistan: Has 17.5 tcm of reserves but faces legal and geopolitical challenges in exporting to Europe. The resolution of the Caspian Sea status and the TCP project's environmental concerns are critical for its participation.

• Iran: Holds the largest reserves (34 tcm), but is hampered by sanctions and a restrictive legal framework. A nuclear deal could lift sanctions and open new opportunities for gas exports to the EU.

• Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Has 3-6 tcm of reserves and has signed agreements with Turkey for gas exports. Its development is dependent on internal stability and political cooperation with Baghdad.

Strategic Implications

• The failure of Nabucco highlights the need for a more flexible and coordinated approach to regional gas trade.
• A strategic EU-Turkey energy partnership can unlock the region's gas export potential and improve supply security.
• The document emphasizes that the SGC should not be seen as a replacement for Russian gas, but rather as a diversification tool to enhance competition and security in the European market.

Conclusion

The SGC represents a significant opportunity for the EU to diversify its gas supply and enhance energy security. A strategic EU-Turkey energy partnership, supported by dedicated taskforces and a shared financing mechanism, is essential to realize this potential. The document underscores the importance of political and commercial cooperation in overcoming regional barriers and ensuring the long-term success of the SGC.