布鲁盖尔-Towards-EU_84页_2mb

Summary of "Towards EU-MENA Shared Prosperity"

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the economic and policy implications of the trade agreements between the European Union (EU) and North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia), as well as the structural transformation of the Moroccan economy and the EU-Southern Mediterranean energy relationship. It highlights the challenges and opportunities for achieving shared prosperity between the EU and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Main Authors and Organizations

• Abdelaziz Ait Ali – Senior Economist, Policy Center for the New South
• Uri Dadush – Non-resident scholar at Bruegel, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South
• Yassine Msadfa – Research Assistant, Policy Center for the New South
• Yana Myachenkova – Former Research Assistant, Bruegel
• Simone Tagliapietra – Research Fellow, Bruegel

The report is a joint publication by Bruegel and the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS), supported by the Compagnia di San Paolo. It is part of a broader initiative to foster policy dialogue between advanced and emerging economies in the Mediterranean and MENA regions.

Key Chapters and Findings

Chapter 1: Assessing the EU-North Africa Trade Agreements

Main Viewpoints:

• The EU-North Africa trade agreements, signed in the 2000s, have not delivered the expected results in terms of export growth and economic diversification for North African countries.
• The EU's exports to North Africa have grown significantly, while North African exports to the EU have remained stagnant or grown slowly.
• The agreements are often judged too harshly, as they have helped increase trade volumes, but domestic reforms and the international environment have limited their effectiveness.
• The EU has been more proactive in trade liberalisation than North African countries, which have been slower in implementing reforms.
• The trade agreements are considered "shallow" due to limited liberalisation in services, investment, and non-tariff barriers.

Key Information:

• The EU has historically granted preferential access to North African countries under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP).
• The trade agreements have not led to substantial improvements in the trade balance of North African countries, but they have increased total trade.
• The authors argue that trade creation, not just trade balance, should be the primary measure of the benefits of these agreements.
• The Arab Spring and the global shift in trade dynamics (e.g., competition from China and Eastern Europe) have negatively impacted North Africa's export performance.

Chapter 2: Structural Transformation of the Moroccan Economy and Global Value Chains

Main Viewpoints:

• Structural transformation is a necessary condition for growth and economic development.
• Morocco's manufacturing sector has not played a significant role in the country's economic transformation.
• Integration into Global Value Chains (GVCs) is crucial for economic growth, but Morocco's integration has been limited due to weak domestic policies and non-tariff barriers.
• There is a need for stronger domestic reforms to enhance competitiveness and export performance.

Key Information:

• Morocco's exports contain a high share of foreign value added, indicating limited domestic value creation.
• The tertiary sector (services) contributes more to export value added than the manufacturing sector.
• Services are often exported as "manufactured goods," suggesting misclassification and underdevelopment of the sector.
• The authors recommend deeper structural reforms to support sustainable growth and better integration into global markets.

Chapter 3: The EU-Southern Mediterranean Energy Relationship

Main Viewpoints:

• Energy cooperation between the EU and Southern Mediterranean countries (SMCs) should focus on promoting renewable energy to meet growing energy demands in a sustainable way.
• The EU has a significant role in the energy trade with SMCs due to its size, proximity, and historical ties.
• Renewable energy development in SMCs is lagging, and international climate finance is essential to support this.
• Improved renewable energy governance is necessary to maximise the benefits of climate finance and energy cooperation for both the EU and SMCs.

Key Information:

• The EU and SMCs have a long history of energy cooperation, dating back to 1969.
• Climate finance from the EU and other international actors is critical for SMCs to develop renewable energy infrastructure.
• The energy relationship has positive implications for Europe, including increased energy security and reduced carbon emissions.

Conclusion and Policy Implications

• The EU-North Africa trade agreements are not the primary cause of North Africa's economic stagnation, but they have not been sufficient to drive significant growth and diversification.
• More comprehensive and deeper trade agreements are needed, along with stronger domestic reforms and support for trade.
• Structural transformation, particularly in manufacturing and GVC integration, is essential for economic development in North Africa.
• Energy cooperation, especially through renewable energy development, offers a promising avenue for shared prosperity between the EU and the Southern Mediterranean.

Key Recommendations

• Deepen trade agreements with North Africa to include more comprehensive provisions on services, investment, and non-tariff barriers.
• Support domestic reforms in North African countries to improve competitiveness and business environments.
• Enhance trade diversification and focus on increasing the share of domestic value added in exports.
• Promote renewable energy in the Southern Mediterranean through international climate finance and better governance.
• Strengthen the EU's role in fostering economic integration and development through policy dialogue and cooperation.