2024-10-20-世界银行-低收入国家的财政脆弱性_演变_驱动因素和政策（英）_100页_1mb

Fiscal Vulnerabilities in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies

Low-income countries (LICs) face severe fiscal challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and global shocks. Key findings include:

1. Fiscal Position:

• Debt: Average government debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 72% in 2023, the highest in 18 years, with 12 out of 26 LICs in or at high risk of debt distress.
• Deficits: Fiscal deficits widened due to increased spending (e.g., health, subsidies) and revenue shortfalls, with primary deficits reaching 2.4% of GDP in 2023.
• Revenues: Government revenues averaged 18% of GDP, 11 percentage points lower than other emerging markets. Tax effort was low, with LICs collecting less than two-thirds of potential tax revenue.

2. Spending Inefficiencies:

• Military spending, subsidies, and excessive civil service employment diverted resources from productive investments. Spending efficiency was significantly lower in LICs, limiting growth-enhancing investments in education, health, and infrastructure.

3. Fiscal Vulnerability to Shocks:

• Global recessions and domestic conflicts significantly worsen fiscal balances. For example, LICs experienced an average 1.7 percentage point fiscal balance deterioration during global recessions.
• Natural disasters also impact fiscal positions, though less severely than conflicts and recessions.

4. Policy Options:

• Revenue Mobilization: Strengthen tax administration, broaden tax bases, and adopt technology to improve compliance.
• Spending Efficiency: Reduce unproductive spending, target subsidies, and prioritize investments in human capital and infrastructure.
• Debt Management: Strengthen debt transparency, adopt fiscal rules, and explore sovereign wealth funds for stabilization.
• Growth-Focused Reforms: Address informality, improve institutions, and promote private investment.

5. International Support:

• LICs rely heavily on concessional financing, particularly from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA). However, grants and aid have declined, necessitating increased global support, including debt relief and technical assistance.

In conclusion, LICs require urgent domestic reforms and enhanced international cooperation to address fiscal vulnerabilities, achieve sustainable debt management, and meet development goals.