2025-04-20-PitchBook-PitchBook年一季度AI-ML公共报表和估值指南（英）_10页_498kb

AI & ML Public Comp Sheet and Valuation Guide Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the AI and Machine Learning (AI & ML) sector, focusing on public companies and their performance in terms of stock returns, valuations, revenue, and EBITDA. It highlights the impact of potential recessions and the role of AI in the market, particularly among major hyperscalers and AI-focused firms.

Main Points

• AI Investment Continuity: Despite a recent stock market downturn, hyperscalers such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are expected to continue strong AI investment. They are likely to view any VC slowdown as an opportunity to maintain their AI investments.

• Recession Impact: Medium and large customers of hyperscaler AI infrastructure are expected to reduce spending on AI services during a recession. However, firms that maintain or accelerate their AI focus are likely to perform better in a weaker economic environment.

• VC Preferences: In a recession, VCs will favor AI companies with revenue, product leadership, and strong founders, even if they haven't yet generated revenue. Top founders such as Mira Murati, Elon Musk, and Ilya Sutskever are still highly valued.

• Tariffs and Datacenter Components: Increased tariffs on Chinese and Eastern components may slow the delivery of critical datacenter components to the US and increase costs, potentially reducing demand and company profits. However, semiconductors are exempt from tariffs.

• Company Classification: Companies are categorized as "conglomerates" (those with diverse business models and AI leadership) or "pure-play" (those focused on AI systems). This qualitative categorization helps in comparing private companies.

• Data Sources: The report is built using PitchBook and Morningstar data, and the full Excel data pack is available to PitchBook clients.

Key Takeaways

• Hyperscalers: Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are expected to continue strong AI investment despite a market downturn.
• Recession Impact: AI service spending is likely to decrease for medium and large customers, but companies with a strong focus on AI are expected to do well.
• VC Trends: VCs will favor AI companies with revenue, product leadership, and top founders.
• Tariff Concerns: Tariffs on datacenter components could reduce demand and profitability, though semiconductors are not affected.
• Company Classification: Conglomerates and pure-play companies are identified for directional comparison.
• Data Access: PitchBook clients can access the full Excel data pack for in-depth analysis.

Stock Returns

• AI Core - Pure-Play:
  • Appen: -11%, -21%, -61%, -56%, -65%, -57%, 69%, -86%, -94%
  • C3.ai: -10%, -10%, -39%, 76%, -32%, -8%, -22%, -7%, N/A
  • Coveo: -2%, -19%, -15%, 3%, -26%, -14%, -50%, -53%, N/A
  • MongoDB: -11%, -34%, -25%, -4%, -41%, -31%, -51%, -60%, 28%
  • nCino: -5%, -12%, -18%, -11%, -17%, -11%, -27%, -33%, N/A
  • OpenText: -6%, -2%, -10%, -2%, -8%, -23%, -34%, -40%, -27%
  • Palantir: -13%, -1%, 12%, 946%, -25%, 125%, 267%, 515%, N/A
  • Rackspace Technology: -11%, -29%, -24%, -57%, -42%, -29%, 7%, -85%, N/A
  • Snowflake: -10%, -17%, -5%, -8%, -22%, 33%, -10%, -36%, N/A
  • UiPath: -8%, -16%, -19%, -14%, -28%, -16%, -55%, -52%, N/A
  • Mean: -9%, -16%, -20%, 87%, -30%, -3%, 9%, 6%, -31%
  • Median: -10%, -17%, -19%, -6%, -27%, -15%, -24%, -46%, -27%

Valuations

• EV/LTM Revenue:
  • AI Core - Conglomerates: Companies include Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Google, IBM, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, Teradata.
  • AI Core - Pure-Play: Companies include Appen, C3.ai, Coveo, MongoDB, nCino, OpenText, Palantir, Rackspace Technology, Snowflake, UiPath.
  • Generative AI Vertical Applications - Conglomerates: Companies include Adobe, JP Morgan, Moody's, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Tenable, Uber, Workday, ZipRecruiter, Zoom.
  • AI Semiconductors: Companies include AMD, Astera Labs, Arm, Dell, HPE, Marvell Technology, Micron Technology, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Super Micro Computer.

Revenue

• AI Core - Conglomerates:

  • Enterprise Value ($B): Amazon ($2046.0), Apple ($3,379.9), Baidu ($27.9), Google ($1,823.6), IBM ($274.5), Meta ($1431.5), Microsoft ($2,781.3), Oracle ($471.0), SAP ($308.4), Teradata ($2.3), Sum: $12,546.5
  • Actual Revenue ($B): Data for 2017 to 2024.
  • YoY Revenue Growth: Varies by company.
  • EV/TTM Revenue: Ranges from 1.3x to 8.9x.

• AI Core - Pure-Play:

  • Enterprise Value ($B): Appen ($0.1), C3.ai ($2.1), Coveo ($0.2), MongoDB ($11.9), nCino ($3.2), OpenText ($12.2), Palantir ($193.0), Rackspace Technology ($3.5), Snowflake ($46.9), UiPath ($15.9), Sum: $289.2
  • Actual Revenue ($B): Data for 2017 to 2024.
  • YoY Revenue Growth: Varies significantly by company.
  • EV/TTM Revenue: Ranges from 0.4x to 67.4x.

• Generative AI Vertical Applications - Conglomerates:

  • Enterprise Value ($B): Adobe ($162.6), JP Morgan ($685.9), Moody's ($88.7), Salesforce ($255.3), ServiceNow ($160.9), Tenable ($4.1), Uber ($157.4), Workday ($57.5), ZipRecruiter ($0.6), Zoom ($14.8), Sum: $1,587.7
  • Actual Revenue ($B): Data for 2017 to 2024.
  • YoY Revenue Growth: Varies by company.
  • EV/TTM Revenue: Ranges from 2.0x to 10.8x.

Conclusion

The report outlines the current state and future outlook of the AI & ML sector, emphasizing the resilience of hyperscalers and the challenges faced by smaller AI startups. It also highlights the importance of revenue, product leadership, and top founders in attracting VC investment, and the potential impact of tariffs on datacenter components. Overall, the sector is expected to continue growing, even in the face of economic uncertainty.