印度国际经济关系研究委员会-印度电子工业：国内制造和出口潜力（英）-2021-80页_9mb

报告摘要

Summary of India's Electronics Industry: Potential for Domestic Manufacturing and Exports

Core Content

This report analyzes the potential for India to develop a globally competitive electronics manufacturing industry and increase its exports, especially in light of global geopolitical shifts and the need to decouple from China. It highlights the opportunities and challenges in the current policy environment and emphasizes the importance of strategic interventions to foster growth.

Main Objectives

To evaluate the effectiveness of current policies and programs in promoting electronics manufacturing and exports.
To assess whether India can build a competitive electronics industry while decoupling from China.
To suggest policy fine-tuning to achieve the goal of "Make in India for the World."

Key Findings

Domestic Production Trends

India's electronics exports have nearly doubled from USD 9 billion in 2014 to USD 15 billion in 2019.
The top export items include smartphones, battery chargers, inverters, solar cells, and data transmission machines.
There has been a shift from Semi Knocked Down (SKD) to Completely Knocked Down (CKD) manufacturing, indicating progress in value addition.
Mobile phones account for over 40% of total electronics production in 2019-20.

Import Trends and Trade Deficit

India's electronic imports stood at USD 51 billion in 2019, contributing to a USD 36 billion trade deficit.
China accounted for USD 19 billion of this deficit.
Top imports include phone parts, PCs, data transmission machines, ICs, and servers.
The Information Technology Agreement (ITA)-1 and other FTAs have been blamed for trade deficits, but this report argues that such correlations are often misinterpreted.

Global Context and Competitive Landscape

The global electronics industry is undergoing a shift due to the pandemic, US-China trade tensions, and the "China Plus One" strategy.
Vietnam's rapid growth in electronics exports (from USD 7 billion in 2010 to USD 100 billion in 2020) demonstrates the potential for India to replicate such success.
China's dominance in global electronics exports (60 times that of India) and its open trade policies provide a stark contrast to India's current environment.

Major Policy Initiatives

National Manufacturing Policy (2011): Aimed at promoting manufacturing across sectors.
National Policy on Electronics (2012 and 2019): Focused on developing a competitive electronics industry.
Make in India Initiative (2014): Encouraged global manufacturing investment in India.
Phased Manufacturing Programme (PMP, 2017): Aimed at increasing domestic manufacturing through duty escalations.
Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP, 2021): Provided incentives for export-oriented manufacturing.
Production Linked Incentive (PLI): A key export promotion tool that has shown some success in boosting production and exports.
Scheme for Promotion of Electronic Components and Semiconductors (SPECS): Aims to strengthen domestic electronics components and semiconductor manufacturing.
Electronics Manufacturing Clusters (EMC) 2.0: Focuses on creating infrastructure and ecosystems for electronics manufacturing.

Challenges Identified

Unfavorable Tariff and Tax Policies: High BCD and GST on high-end products make India less competitive.
Low Scale and High Costs: India's electronics manufacturing remains small-scale, leading to high costs.
Lack of Complementary Policies: Despite improved Ease of Doing Business rankings, the business environment remains a barrier to foreign investment.
Conflict Between Trade and Industrial Policies: The PMP's duty escalations conflict with the need for open trade to attract global investors.
Data and Research Gaps: Disaggregated data on Indian electronics production are lacking, hindering detailed analysis and policy formulation.

Policy Recommendations

Continue and Expand PLI: The PLI scheme should be extended to all consumer electronics and their components, not just mobile phones.
Align National and Subnational Policies: Incentives should be market-linked and aimed at boosting production and exports, not just mitigating existing issues.
Strategic Decoupling from China: Decoupling should be informed by a deep understanding of global supply chains and should not be rushed. Encouraging Chinese GVCs to set up in India can help build capacity.
Pro-Trade and Pro-Market Environment: Policies should support FDI, reduce the cost of doing business, and promote flexible labor laws and R&D.
Enhance Data Collection and Research: MeitY and MoPSI should prioritize data collection and availability for researchers to enable more informed policy decisions.

Conclusion

India has a strong potential to become a global electronics manufacturing hub, but this requires a coordinated effort, stable and market-friendly policies, and effective implementation. The current window of opportunity is critical, and failure to capitalize on it may result in a loss of investor interest. The report underscores the need for a strategic, data-driven, and inclusive approach to electronics manufacturing and exports.

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