2012年-世界发展银行全球_Determinants_of_Fertility_Womens_Health_and_Employment_Behavior_in_Sri_Lanka_39页_2mb

Summary of Report No. 38: Determinants of Fertility, Women's Health and Employment Behavior in Sri Lanka

Core Content

This report analyzes the determinants of fertility, women's health, and employment behavior in Sri Lanka, focusing on the period from 2000 to 2006/07. It examines how demographic dynamics, socioeconomic factors, and cultural norms influence fertility rates, women's reproductive choices, and their participation in the labor force.

Main Findings

Fertility Trends

• Sri Lanka has historically had the lowest total fertility rate (TFR) in South Asia.
• TFR decreased until 2000, reaching 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement level.
• It then increased to 2.3 children per woman in 2006/07, above the replacement level.
• The average number of children ever born (CEB) to women aged 40-49 was 2.6, indicating a slight decline in fertility over time.
• The decline in fertility is not very large, with a difference of 0.3 children between current and past fertility levels.

Proximate Determinants of Fertility

• Marriage: Marriage is a key determinant of fertility. The probability of ever giving birth is influenced by marital status, age at marriage, and age at first birth.
• Contraception: Contraceptive usage increased from 49.5% to 52.8%, while the percentage of women using any form of contraception decreased slightly from 70% to 68%.
• Lactational infecundability: This is a natural biological factor that influences fertility.
• Duration of the fertile period: The length of time a woman is biologically able to bear children affects fertility outcomes.

Socioeconomic and Cultural Influences

• Education: Higher education is associated with lower fertility. Women with higher education are less likely to have children.
• Wealth: Wealthier women tend to have fewer children. A 0.1 point increase in the wealth index decreases the probability of ever giving birth by 0.013 percentage points.
• Location: Urban women are more likely to have children than rural women, but the effect is smaller compared to education and wealth.
• Religion and Ethnicity: Buddhist and Sinhalese women have the lowest number of children (around 2 children), while Muslim women have a higher number (around 2.6 children).
• Child mortality and nutrition: Lower child mortality and better nutrition are associated with lower fertility, as families tend to have fewer children when they are more likely to survive and thrive.

Key Data and Analysis

Data Sources

• The report primarily uses the 2006/07 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).
• It is supplemented by the 2000 DHS to highlight time trends.
• The sample includes ever-married women aged 15-49.

Demographic Changes

• The proportion of ever-married women in the sample increased from 73.5% in 2000 to 81.6% in 2006/07.
• The wealth distribution of eligible women changed slightly, with a higher proportion of women with secondary and higher education.
• The TFR for Sri Lanka increased from 1.9 in 2000 to 2.3 in 2006/07.

Fertility Preferences

• About 62% of women were unable or not willing to have more children.
• The percentage of women who had sterilization or declared infecundity decreased from 23% to 20%, while the percentage of women who wanted no more children increased from 38.7% to 43%.

Statistical Analysis

Table Highlights

• Table 1 shows the distribution of eligible and non-eligible women by age, education, and wealth.
• Table 2 compares fertility rates across South Asian countries, showing that Sri Lanka's TFR is lower than most, but has increased slightly.
• Table 3 provides marginal effects from a Probit model, showing that wealth and education significantly reduce the probability of ever giving birth.

Figure Highlights

• Figure 1 compares the TFR and average number of children ever born for women aged 40-49.
• Figure 2 illustrates the number of children ever born in 2006/07, highlighting the differences by age and location.

Conclusion

• The report highlights the complex interplay between demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural factors in shaping fertility trends in Sri Lanka.
• It emphasizes the need for targeted policies that address the specific needs of different groups, particularly those with lower education and wealth, to improve fertility outcomes and women's health and employment behavior.
• The findings suggest that women's empowerment and education are crucial in reducing fertility rates and improving overall well-being.