世界经济论坛：2023年首席风险官展望_21页_1mb

Chief Risk Officers Outlook Summary (July 2023)

Core Content

The Chief Risk Officers Outlook is a mid-year report published by the World Economic Forum's Centre for the New Economy and Society, based on a survey of chief risk officers (CROs) from both public and private sectors. The report provides a real-time assessment of global risks, emphasizing the challenges and uncertainties faced by organizations in 2023.

Main Risks Identified

1. Economic Headwinds

• Over 85% of CROs expect volatility in economic and financial conditions across major economies.
• Macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, and liquidity remain central risks.
• Inflation is still a significant factor, with core inflation remaining high in many countries.
• Interest rates are at their highest in 15 years, squeezing demand and increasing debt servicing costs.
• Debt distress is a growing concern, especially for lower-income countries with dollar-denominated borrowing.
• "Zombie firms" (companies barely able to service debt) are at risk as borrowing costs rise.
• Unemployment is not a top risk, as many economies show strong labor market conditions.

2. Geopolitical Fallout

• Geopolitical and geoeconomic relations are expected to be the most volatile area, with majority of CROs anticipating global upheavals.
• Armed conflicts and trade restrictions are significant risks, with over 110 conflicts currently active worldwide.
• Supply chain disruptions persist, particularly due to raw material shortages, El Niño conditions, and geopolitical shocks.
• Global fuel and food prices remain elevated, with food prices above historical averages in most G7 countries.

3. Politics of Risk

• Political volatility is expected to be high, with over 40% of CROs anticipating global political upheavals.
• Elections and political regime changes are seen as a top risk, with a third of CROs identifying this as a potential threat.
• Regulatory changes, compliance, and enforcement are also top concerns, especially in the EU, US, and China.
• Ethical and societal risks are increasingly complex, with 75% of CROs agreeing that AI technologies pose reputational risks.
• Compliance risks are rising due to increased regulatory scrutiny, and data protection fines in the EU reached a record €1.6 billion in the first half of 2023.

Risk Spotlight: AI Technologies

1. Risky Business

• AI technologies are rapidly evolving, with significant potential for both benefits and harms.
• AI can disrupt industries and improve operations, but also poses risks like misinformation, cyberattacks, and data breaches.
• Ethical concerns are widespread, including bias in algorithmic decisions and misuse of personal data.

2. Regulatory Shortfalls

• Over 90% of CROs believe regulation and guardrails for AI should be accelerated.
• 43% of CROs support slowing or pausing AI development until risks are better understood.
• Regulatory gaps are expected to persist, as AI technologies evolve much faster than the legal frameworks.
• Self-regulation is becoming more important, with over half of CROs planning an AI audit within six months.
• Global regulatory alignment is a challenge, with potential costs and spill-over risks for businesses.

Key Findings

• Global volatility is expected across multiple areas, including geopolitical, economic, domestic political, societal, and technological.
• AI-related risks are growing, with reputational, legal, and operational impacts.
• Regulatory frameworks are lagging behind the pace of AI development, leading to uncertainty and potential instability.
• Societal and investor scrutiny is increasing, prompting a need for ethical and responsible AI practices.
• Debt distress and supply chain disruptions remain pressing concerns, particularly in lower-income countries and key industries.

Conclusion

The report underscores the increasing complexity of global risk management, with CROs highlighting the need for proactive strategies, regulatory alignment, and ethical oversight. As AI and geopolitical tensions continue to evolve, organizations must adapt to mitigate the potential impacts on their operations, reputations, and financial stability.